33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 8, Wk 40 · Pacific City, OR 97135

$67,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Timeshare · 5 Days on market

Built 2007 $59/sqft · at area comps Est $57k · 18% over $458/mo HOA · 20% of rent ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous, beachfront Cottage. Vacation ownership at its best - all you need to bring is your suitcase. No chores or repairs to be done, come prepared to rest and relax. Three weeks per year in a two bedroom, two bathroom lower level Cottage. Includes a gourmet kitchen, washer & dryer, cozy gas fireplace. Cottage ownership means you get to use the amenities at Headlands including the spa and hot tub. Purchase Cottage 4 Week 25 and enjoy two weeks at the beach! (This primary week often includes the July 4th holiday.)

Key facts

• Large patio
• Gourmet kitchen
• Propane bbq

Tags

• LARGE PATIO
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PROPANE BBQ
• OCEAN FRONT HOT TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a community with curbs, street lights and sidewalks; Paved roads
• HOA & community: Kiwanda Cottages HOA; Annual association fee; Association amenities include fitness center, sauna, spa/hot tub, and beach access; Association covers cable TV, electricity, gas, insurance, internet, grounds and structure maintenance, pest control, security, sewer, trash, water, property taxes for common areas and utilities

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Carport (1 space); Additional parking; Electric vehicle charging station(s)
• Security: Community security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Propane; Water connected
• Home design: One-level property; Single-story; Built in 2007; Composition roof; Cedar and shingle siding
• Construction: Cedar and shingle siding construction; Composition roof; Built in 2007
• Exterior features: Outdoor grill; Rear patio; Oceanfront / waterfront view

Interior

• Kitchen: Propane oven; Propane range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Ice maker; Dishwasher; Water purifier
• Bedrooms: Primary suite — oceanfront with king bed; Primary suite — separate shower and soaking tub; Bedroom 2 — queen bed; Bedroom 3 — twin beds
• Flooring: Carpet; Slate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Radiant floor heating; Central air; Has heat
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Smart thermostat; Sound system; Walk-in closet(s); Jetted tub; Window treatments; Propane fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $858 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 1.9% in Pacific City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#173 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment B, housing B; Watch: commute D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Nestucca Valley SD 101J (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #101 of 183 in OR (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $959 of equity ($467 loan paydown + $492 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 31 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $67,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.48%
• DSCR: 3.42
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,000
• List price: $67,500
• Delta: -12.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $55,339
• Equity at exit: $22,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.95×
• Total profit: $131,434
• Equity at exit: $28,647

Cash invested: $18,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97135

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,256 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$354
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$84 /mo · $1,012/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$458
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $858

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,170

Max offer price $67,500

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,875
• Closing costs: $2,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $458 · $5,496/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,500 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,500 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,500 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,500 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 546-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $67,500 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $49,900 Active 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Gorgeous, beachfront Cottage. Vacation ownership at its best - all you need to bring is your suitcase. No chores or repairs to be done, come prepared to rest and relax. Three weeks per year in a two bedroom, two bathroom lower level Cottage. Includes a gourmet kitchen, washer & dryer, cozy gas fireplace. Cottage ownership means you get to use the amenities at Headlands including the spa and hot tub. Primary week often includes the July 4th Holiday, a real treat to be at the Cottages during that time. Purchase Cottage 4 Week 26 and enjoy two weeks at the beach!

17. 2026-04-17
    listed $46,900 Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Gorgeous, beachfront Cottage. Vacation ownership at its best - all you need to bring is your suitcase. No chores or repairs to be done, come prepared to rest and relax. Three weeks per year in a two bedroom, two bathroom lower level Cottage. Includes a gourmet kitchen, washer & dryer, cozy gas fireplace. Cottage ownership means you get to use the amenities at Headlands including the spa and hot tub. Primary week often includes the July 4th Holiday, a real treat to be at the Cottages during that time. Purchase Cottage 4 Week 26 and enjoy two weeks at the beach!

18. 2026-04-02
    listed $69,000 Active
19. 2025-12-15
    status Active
20. 2025-12-15
    status Pending
21. 2025-12-15
    status Active
22. 2025-12-15
    status Active
23. 2025-12-15
    status Active
24. 2025-12-13
    price $49,000
25. 2025-12-13
    price $49,000
26. 2025-12-13
    price $45,000
27. 2025-12-13
    price $45,000
28. 2025-12-13
    price $69,900
29. 2025-12-13
    price $69,900
30. 2025-12-13
    price $74,900
31. 2025-12-13
    price $74,900
32. 2025-12-12
    price $70,000
33. 2025-12-12
    price $70,000
34. 2025-11-13
    historical
35. 2025-11-13
    price $439,000
36. 2025-09-12
    soldstatus $88,000
37. 2025-09-12
    soldstatus $68,000
38. 2025-09-12
    listed $89,000
39. 2025-09-12
    listed $68,000
40. 2025-04-29
    listed $55,000 Active
41. 2025-04-29
    listed $53,000 Active
42. 2025-04-26
    listed $439,000
43. 2025-02-03
    price $139,000
44. 2025-02-03
    price $139,000
45. 2025-02-03
    historical
46. 2025-02-03
    historical
47. 2025-02-03
    price $160,000
48. 2025-02-03
    price $160,000
49. 2025-02-03
    historical
50. 2025-02-03
    price $180,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥77°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,781
• − Property taxes: −$1,012
• − Insurance: −$338
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,166
• − Management: −$2,166
• − HOA: −$5,496
• − Depreciation: −$1,964
• Taxable income: $10,154
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,437
• After-tax cash flow: $7,860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nestucca Valley SD 101J
• NCES district ID: 4108700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,958
• Composite: 37.3/100
• National rank: #8956
• State rank: #101 of 183 in OR

Livability — Pacific City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #10340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pacific City, OR
• City population: 1,505
• Population (ZIP): 1,505

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Current HPI: 197.7747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-28.2% since first listed

81 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $67,500 OCMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $46,900 OCMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $49,900 OCMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $69,000 OCMLS
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — OCMLS
• 2025-12-15 Pending — OCMLS
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — OCMLS
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — OCMLS
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — OCMLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $49,000 OCMLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $49,000 OCMLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $45,000 OCMLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $45,000 OCMLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $69,900 OCMLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $69,900 OCMLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $74,900 OCMLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $74,900 OCMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $70,000 OCMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $70,000 OCMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $439,000 OCMLS
• 2025-11-13 Delisted — OCMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $68,000 OCMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $89,000 OCMLS
• 2025-09-12 Sold (MLS) $68,000 OCMLS
• 2025-09-12 Sold (MLS) $88,000 OCMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listed $53,000 OCMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listed $55,000 OCMLS
• 2025-04-26 Listed $439,000 OCMLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $139,000 OCMLS
• 2025-02-03 Delisted — OCMLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $139,000 OCMLS
• 2025-02-03 Delisted — OCMLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $160,000 OCMLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $160,000 OCMLS
• 2025-02-03 Delisted — OCMLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $180,000 OCMLS
• 2025-02-03 Delisted — OCMLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $180,000 OCMLS
• 2025-02-03 Delisted — OCMLS
• 2025-02-03 Delisted — OCMLS
• 2025-02-01 Listed $35,000 OCMLS
• 2025-01-17 Sold (MLS) $33,500 OCMLS
• 2025-01-04 Listed $68,000 OCMLS
• 2024-12-14 Pending — OCMLS
• 2024-12-12 Listed $36,500 OCMLS
• 2024-12-06 Sold (MLS) $94,500 OCMLS
• 2024-12-03 Sold (MLS) $40,000 OCMLS
• 2024-11-12 Listed $68,000 OCMLS
• 2024-11-12 Sold (MLS) $68,000 OCMLS
• 2024-11-11 Pending — OCMLS
• 2024-11-09 Listed $99,500 OCMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $68,000 OCMLS
• 2024-09-19 Listed $80,000 OCMLS
• 2024-09-19 Listed $80,000 OCMLS
• 2024-08-30 Price Changed $89,500 OCMLS
• 2024-07-23 Price Changed $44,500 OCMLS
• 2024-07-01 Sold (MLS) $64,000 OCMLS
• 2024-06-28 Listed $105,000 OCMLS
• 2024-06-21 Sold (MLS) $46,000 OCMLS
• 2024-06-14 Pending — OCMLS
• 2024-06-14 Price Changed $47,500 OCMLS
• 2024-06-10 Pending — OCMLS
• 2024-06-10 Relisted — OCMLS
• 2024-05-31 Sold (MLS) $65,000 OCMLS
• 2024-05-13 Pending — OCMLS
• 2024-04-25 Listed $69,900 OCMLS
• 2024-04-22 Price Changed $69,900 OCMLS
• 2024-04-22 Price Changed $84,000 OCMLS
• 2024-04-22 Sold (MLS) $80,000 OCMLS
• 2024-04-22 Price Changed $84,000 OCMLS
• 2024-04-22 Sold (MLS) $80,000 OCMLS
• 2024-04-22 Sold (MLS) $80,000 OCMLS
• 2024-04-06 Listed $48,000 OCMLS
• 2024-04-06 Listed $49,000 OCMLS
• 2024-03-22 Listed $49,900 OCMLS
• 2024-03-18 Price Changed $46,000 OCMLS
• 2024-03-18 Price Changed $84,000 OCMLS
• 2024-02-06 Listed $74,900 OCMLS
• 2024-02-06 Listed $74,900 OCMLS
• 2024-02-05 Listed $51,000 OCMLS
• 2024-02-05 Listed $94,000 OCMLS