16711 Marsh Creek Rd #112 · Antioch, CA 94517

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 25 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $217k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tranquil & beautiful Clayton Palms family park! Beautifully maintained home that sits amongst a beautiful, relaxed country setting only a few yards from Marsh Creek. Park amenities include pool, full service clubhouse, fitness center, covered playground, soccer field, basketball & state-of-the-art dog park! So much to do in this one-of-a-kind park! Enjoy the peace, safety, and quiet of rural living yet only minutes away from schools, hospitals, entertainment, and great shopping. Minutes to Antioch/ Brentwood.

Key facts

• Covered playground
• Fitness center
• Soccer field

Tags

• POOL
• FULL SERVICE CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER
• COVERED PLAYGROUND
• SOCCER FIELD
• BASKETBALL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed; Community fitness center; Community pool; Located in Clayton Regency park

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide mobile home; Single-story (entry level not specified)
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Patio; Back yard; Landscaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen features listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (2 full)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Family room; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Brentwood Union Elementary (suburban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #268 of 1,400 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $170k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,450 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.52%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,576
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #54	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	16mo	$240,000	$202	81
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #79	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-8%)	12mo	$220,000	$207	77
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #126	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+13%)	10mo	$182,000	$140	70
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #97	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,098 (-5%)	21mo	$199,800	$182	70
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #135	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	20mo	$221,000	$177	69
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #63	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+13%)	14mo	$245,000	$188	67
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #179	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-10%)	18mo	$219,000	$211	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $63,090
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.61×
• Total profit: $171,901
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94517

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,371 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$708
• Net cashflow: $1,422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    status Active
16. 2026-05-12
    price $175,000
17. 2026-05-06
    status Pending
18. 2026-05-06
    price $180,000
19. 2026-05-01
    price $175,000
20. 2026-03-30
    price $180,000
21. 2026-02-27
    price $185,000
22. 2026-02-10
    listed $190,000 Active
23. 2026-02-08
    historical
24. 2025-11-25
    listed Active
25. 2022-01-13
    historical
26. 2022-01-05
    status Pending
27. 2021-12-14
    listed New
28. 2006-06-28
    soldstatus $45,000
29. 2006-05-12
    historical
30. 2006-04-25
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$1,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,236
• − Management: −$3,236
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $15,312
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,675
• After-tax cash flow: $13,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0605910
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $91,644
• Composite: 52.7/100
• National rank: #3320
• State rank: #268 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 116,477
• Population (ZIP): 12,164

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -693.84%
• Current HPI: 144.7139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+288.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $175,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-06 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $180,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $175,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $180,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $185,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-10 Listed $190,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-08 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-25 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-01-13 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-01-05 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-12-14 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-06-28 Sold (MLS) $45,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-05-12 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-04-25 Listed $45,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $140 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.