2803 Fairview Ave · Rockford, IL 61101

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 828 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

Built 1950 6,098 sqft lot Est $108k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Whether you are looking for the perfect starter home or a great addition to your rental portfolio, this property checks all the boxes. This move -in ready home has been recently remodeled with updates inside and out. Exterior improvements include a newer roof, siding, and windows, while the interior features updated flooring, kitchen, and fresh paint throughout. Enjoy the convenience of main level laundry and a low maintenance yard- perfect for a busy lifestyle. Don't miss this opportunity to own a comfortable, updated home ready for it's new owner.

Key facts

• Low maintenance yard
• Newer roof
• Main level laundry

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• UPDATED FLOORING
• MAIN LEVEL LAUNDRY
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kennedy Middle School (math 3% / reading 2%, grade F, #660 of 665 statewide, top 100%, 380 students, 0% FRL); Auburn High School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #210 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 1,936 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $110k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.83%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $107,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 N Horace Ave	0.05mi	2/1.0	896 (+8%)	7mo	$116,900	$130	78
724 N Greenview Ave	0.07mi	2/1.0	768 (-7%)	12mo	$99,900	$130	75
917 Willard Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0	768 (-7%)	6mo	$98,000	$128	73
317 N Horace Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0	715 (-14%)	1mo	$109,000	$152	65
2213 Mulberry St	0.53mi	2/1.0	864 (+4%)	4mo	$42,000	$49	64
306 N Burbank Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	800 (-3%)	12mo	$58,000	$73	64
702 N Independence Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0	823 (-1%)	6mo	$100,000	$122	63
906 N Central Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0	768 (-7%)	9mo	$74,900	$98	46
2315 Chestnut St	0.64mi	2/1.0	932 (+13%)	7mo	$125,000	$134	44
1107 N Sunset Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0	725 (-12%)	4mo	$65,000	$90	43
916 N Independence Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0	725 (-12%)	11mo	$105,000	$145	38
513 Overland Trl	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+13%)	10mo	$130,000	$139	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,789
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $18,981
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61101

• Home prices YoY: -25.4%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,164 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $533/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $844

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $315	-5% $284	+0% $252	+5% $221	+10% $190
Rent	-10% $160	-5% $206	+0% $252	+5% $298	+10% $344
Rate	-1.0pp $308	-0.5pp $280	base $252	+0.5pp $224	+1.0pp $195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2305 School St Unit 2305-7 Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	875	$995	$1.14	45d	1	0.34mi
2011 School St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,500	$1.58	45d	1	0.52mi
924 N Sunset Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	725	$1,050	$1.45	14d	1	0.62mi
504 Lexington Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	14d	1	0.85mi
1826 Green St Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	22d	1	0.89mi
1116 Irving Ave Unit 1116-301 Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	22d	1	0.89mi
912 Furman St Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	14d	1	0.94mi
1413 La Belle Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	45d	1	0.98mi
1118 Furman St Unit 1118-15 Rockford, IL	1.0	1.0	650	$995	$1.53	45d	1	0.98mi
1118 Furman St Unit 1118-13 Rockford, IL	1.0	1.0	650	$995	$1.53	22d	1	0.98mi
3834 Preston St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	912	$1,300	$1.43	14d	1	1.10mi
615 Newport Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	14d	1	1.10mi
2330 Kilburn Ave Rockford, IL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$999	$1.05	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   price $110,000
3. 2026-03-05
   listed $112,500 Active
4. 2025-11-25
   soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,515 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$982/yr (+$82/mo · 184.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$533
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,117
• − Management: −$1,117
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $1,288
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$309
• After-tax cash flow: $2,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 19,318
• Household income: $46,163
• Rent vs Own: 48.6% rent · 51.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1170.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.58%
• Current HPI: 204.8946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $110,000 NWIAR
• 2026-03-05 Listed $112,500 NWIAR
• 2025-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $533 · +471.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.