405 Estelle Ave · Ferguson, MO 63135

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 775 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1950 8,250 sqft lot $103/sqft · 6% below area Est $85k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming bungalow in the heart of Ferguson offers a functional and inviting floor plan featuring two main-floor bedrooms and a central full bathroom. The interior is highlighted by timeless architectural details including arched doorways and original hardwood flooring that flows through the living and dining areas. Large windows provide an abundance of natural light throughout the home, creating a bright and airy atmosphere. The property includes a full, unfinished basement that offers ample storage or the potential for future creative use, along with a spacious, level backyard perfect for outdoor activities. Conveniently located near local parks, community dining, and downtown Ferguson amenities, this well-maintained home is an excellent opportunity for anyone seeking a comfortable residence with a blend of historic character and modern potential.

Key facts

• 8,250 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1950

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• TIMELESS ARCHITECTURAL DETAILS
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• SPACIOUS LEVEL BACKYARD
• DOWNTOWN FERGUSON AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $445 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 9.2% in Ferguson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $80k implies a 290% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.87%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,366
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -6.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 Estelle Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	775 (0%)	1mo	$79,900	$103	99
313 S Dade Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0	768 (-1%)	5mo	$67,500	$88	79
221 S Harvey Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0	864 (+12%)	3mo	$135,000	$156	73
462 S Dade Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0	720 (-7%)	5mo	$60,750	$84	60
400 S Harvey Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0	875 (+13%)	5mo	$63,000	$72	59
222 Henquin Dr	0.69mi	2/1.0	816 (+5%)	1mo	$115,000	$141	58
808 Arline Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	720 (-7%)	0mo	$125,000	$174	54
809 Thomas Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	4mo	$59,900	$69	47
358 Plaza Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	891 (+15%)	6mo	$29,900	$34	45
213 Henquin Dr	0.68mi	1/1.0 (-1)	696 (-10%)	4mo	$34,900	$50	43
30 Paul Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	875 (+13%)	5mo	$69,900	$80	43
6016 Shillington Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	891 (+15%)	6mo	$100,000	$112	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $21,909
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $85,200
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63135

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $667

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
246 Louisa Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,600	$1.54	43d	1	0.22mi
601 Carson Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	743	$950	$1.28	23d	1	0.25mi
360 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$925	$0.99	43d	1	0.29mi
222 Randolph Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	7d	1	0.30mi
519 Graf Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	887	$1,297	$1.46	20d	1	0.34mi
334 Mueller Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	713	$825	$1.16	23d	1	0.43mi
419 S Florissant Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	0.46mi
223 Wiegel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,560	$1.81	12d	1	0.47mi
422 Plaza Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	0.48mi
709 Suburban Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$1,400	$1.44	43d	1	0.48mi
910 Disco Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	924	$1,260	$1.36	16d	1	0.49mi
60 Mayme Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,285	$1.34	43d	1	0.50mi
450 S Dade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	23d	1	0.51mi
801 Thomas Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	43d	1	0.54mi
617 Tesmore Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	877	$1,200	$1.37	43d	1	0.54mi
806 Marvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	726	$1,100	$1.52	43d	1	0.55mi
12 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	832	$1,080	$1.30	7d	1	0.59mi
110 Paul Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	875	$1,050	$1.20	7d	1	0.60mi
5300 Grove Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	23d	1	0.63mi
5500 Mable Ave Unit 5530 B1 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	850	$915	$1.08	43d	1	0.67mi
5500 Mable Ave Unit 5518 B4 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$835	$1.11	43d	1	0.67mi
222 Henquin Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,050	$1.29	17d	1	0.67mi
26 Arbor Village Ct Ferguson, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	714	$950	$1.33	23d	1	0.67mi
6156 Wulff Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	960	$1,425	$1.48	10d	1	0.68mi
6132 Eaton Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,125	$1.42	23d	1	0.79mi
204 Hawkesbury Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	849	$1,250	$1.47	4d	1	0.86mi
6044 Cascade Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	984	$1,150	$1.17	7d	1	0.89mi
8408 Hill Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,550	$1.49	23d	1	0.92mi
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	23d	1	0.98mi
401 Millman Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	16d	1	0.98mi
6333 Peurifoy Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	23d	1	1.00mi
8306 Whitewater Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,195	$1.51	7d	1	1.00mi
227 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	43d	1	1.04mi
296 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	14d	1	1.09mi
6180 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	729	$1,300	$1.78	43d	1	1.10mi
7733 Brand Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	656	$1,090	$1.66	23d	1	1.10mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	17d	1	1.12mi
415 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,400	$1.72	43d	1	1.12mi
5925 Brand Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	951	$1,200	$1.26	43d	1	1.16mi
6214 Jefferson Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,195	$1.46	23d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-03
   price $79,900 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   This charming bungalow in the heart of Ferguson offers a functional and inviting floor plan featuring two main-floor bedrooms and a central full bathroom. The interior is highlighted by timeless architectural details including arched doorways and original hardwood flooring that flows through the living and dining areas. Large windows provide an abundance of natural light throughout the home, creating a bright and airy atmosphere. The property includes a full, unfinished basement that offers ample storage or the potential for future creative use, along with a spacious, level backyard perfect for outdoor activities. Conveniently located near local parks, community dining, and downtown Ferguson amenities, this well-maintained home is an excellent opportunity for anyone seeking a comfortable residence with a blend of historic character and modern potential.

2. 2026-03-19
   price $84,900 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   This charming bungalow in the heart of Ferguson offers a functional and inviting floor plan featuring two main-floor bedrooms and a central full bathroom. The interior is highlighted by timeless architectural details including arched doorways and original hardwood flooring that flows through the living and dining areas. Large windows provide an abundance of natural light throughout the home, creating a bright and airy atmosphere. The property includes a full, unfinished basement that offers ample storage or the potential for future creative use, along with a spacious, level backyard perfect for outdoor activities. Conveniently located near local parks, community dining, and downtown Ferguson amenities, this well-maintained home is an excellent opportunity for anyone seeking a comfortable residence with a blend of historic character and modern potential.

3. 2026-02-18
   listed $89,900 Active 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   This charming bungalow in the heart of Ferguson offers a functional and inviting floor plan featuring two main-floor bedrooms and a central full bathroom. The interior is highlighted by timeless architectural details including arched doorways and original hardwood flooring that flows through the living and dining areas. Large windows provide an abundance of natural light throughout the home, creating a bright and airy atmosphere. The property includes a full, unfinished basement that offers ample storage or the potential for future creative use, along with a spacious, level backyard perfect for outdoor activities. Conveniently located near local parks, community dining, and downtown Ferguson amenities, this well-maintained home is an excellent opportunity for anyone seeking a comfortable residence with a blend of historic character and modern potential.

4. 2020-04-28
   soldstatus $20,500
5. 2020-04-23
   soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $900 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $900 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $4,308
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $4,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,381
• Household income: $52,328
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 957.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.56%
• Current HPI: 138.6781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+207.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $84,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $20,500 Public Records
• 2020-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $900 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.