9800 W Bay Harbor Dr #404 · Bay Harbor Islands, FL 33154

$580,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Condo public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1967

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located In The Exclusive Island Of Bay Harbor. Excellent Condition, Very Spacious 2/2 Condo. Open Kitchen. Balcony, Floor-To-Ceiling Windows, Walking Closets. Bal Harbour Shops, Prestigious Elementary School, Cafes, Places Of Worship And The Beach, All Within Walking Distance, Currently Rented Till June 2022 For $1850.00

Key facts

• Modern white kitchen
• Ample closet space
• Assigned parking

Tags

• MODERN WHITE KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CLOSET SPACE
• ASSIGNED PARKING
• WALKABLE COMMUNITY
• ACCESS TO A-RATED K-8 SCHOOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with size limit (maximum 20 lbs)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee (includes amenities, common areas, cable TV, hot water, insurance, internet, laundry, grounds maintenance, building maintenance, parking, pest control, pool(s), trash, water); Association amenities include pool and elevator(s)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Guest parking; One assigned space
• Security: Closed-circuit cameras; Intercom
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Condo in a 7-story building; Entry on level 4
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Private balcony (open); Heated pool; Canal-front waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Microwave
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Impact-resistant windows; Living/dining room; Walk-in closet(s); Additional storage room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available (included in association amenities)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $580k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $459k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $439k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $439k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#13 in FL, #362 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 522 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,385/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($510k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $270k; list at $580k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $438,543 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.82%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.12% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $47,900
• Equity at exit: $369,169

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $205,876
• Equity at exit: $673,437

Cash invested: $162,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33154

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 522
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,385 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,042
• Tax from tax record: −$440 /mo · $5,281/yr
• Insurance: −$242
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$1,070
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$921
• Net cashflow: $-1,755

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,607

Max offer price $269,905

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $145,000
• Closing costs: $17,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9703 Collins Ave Bal Harbour, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1401	$26,000	$18.56	24d	2	0.71mi
9703 Collins Ave #1006 Bal Harbour, FL	1.0	1.0	1261	$26,000	$20.62	21d	1	0.72mi
10295 Collins Ave #1613 Bal Harbour, FL	1.0	1.5	1147	$27,500	$23.98	24d	1	0.96mi
8701 Collins Ave #304 Surfside, FL	2.0	2.5	1457	$25,000	$17.16	24d	1	1.39mi
2020 NE 135th St #904 North Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	963	$23,509	$24.41	15d	1	1.48mi
2020 NE 135th St North Miami, FL	2.0	2.0	963	$23,509	$24.41	13d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $580,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $580,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $580,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $580,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $580,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $580,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 487-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $580,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $580,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $580,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $580,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $580,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $580,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $580,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-01-16
    listed $580,000 Active
16. 2021-11-12
    soldstatus $270,000
17. 2021-11-02
    soldstatus $270,000 Closed 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Located In The Exclusive Island Of Bay Harbor. Excellent Condition, Very Spacious 2/2 Condo. Open Kitchen. Balcony, Floor-To-Ceiling Windows, Walking Closets. Bal Harbour Shops, Prestigious Elementary School, Cafes, Places Of Worship And The Beach, All Within Walking Distance, Currently Rented Till June 2022 For $1850.00

18. 2021-09-15
    historical Active Under Contract 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Located In The Exclusive Island Of Bay Harbor. Excellent Condition, Very Spacious 2/2 Condo. Open Kitchen. Balcony, Floor-To-Ceiling Windows, Walking Closets. Bal Harbour Shops, Prestigious Elementary School, Cafes, Places Of Worship And The Beach, All Within Walking Distance, Currently Rented Till June 2022 For $1850.00

19. 2021-08-24
    listed $269,962 Active 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Located In The Exclusive Island Of Bay Harbor. Excellent Condition, Very Spacious 2/2 Condo. Open Kitchen. Balcony, Floor-To-Ceiling Windows, Walking Closets. Bal Harbour Shops, Prestigious Elementary School, Cafes, Places Of Worship And The Beach, All Within Walking Distance, Currently Rented Till June 2022 For $1850.00

20. 2020-12-30
    status Pending
21. 2020-12-29
    historical
22. 2020-09-09
    price $229,000
23. 2019-10-16
    price $239,000
24. 2019-09-26
    price $259,000
25. 2019-05-24
    price $274,000
26. 2018-05-25
    listed $324,000 Active
27. 2017-07-10
    historical
28. 2016-07-11
    listed $310,000 Active
29. 2016-07-01
    historical
30. 2015-07-28
    listed $340,000 Active
31. 2015-06-01
    historical
32. 2014-06-14
    listed $340,000 Active
33. 2007-02-12
    soldstatus $295,000
34. 2007-02-06
    soldstatus $295,000
35. 1995-03-23
    soldstatus $99,000
36. 1973-09-01
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,281 · $440/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,281 · $440/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,489
• − Property taxes: −$5,281
• − Insurance: −$8,018
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,210
• − Management: −$4,210
• − HOA: −$12,840
• − Depreciation: −$16,873
• Taxable loss: −$31,296
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,511
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bay Harbor Islands

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #362

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay Harbor Islands, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 14,435
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,572
• Household income: $89,563
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 774.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 25% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 12% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.12%
• Current HPI: 454.1747
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.30%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1350.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $580,000 MARMLS
• 2021-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-02 Sold (MLS) $270,000 MARMLS
• 2021-09-15 Contingent — MARMLS
• 2021-08-24 Listed $269,962 MARMLS
• 2020-12-30 Pending — MARMLS
• 2020-12-29 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2020-09-09 Price Changed $229,000 MARMLS
• 2019-10-16 Price Changed $239,000 MARMLS
• 2019-09-26 Price Changed $259,000 MARMLS
• 2019-05-24 Price Changed $274,000 MARMLS
• 2018-05-25 Listed $324,000 MARMLS
• 2017-07-10 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2016-07-11 Listed $310,000 MARMLS
• 2016-07-01 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2015-07-28 Listed $340,000 MARMLS
• 2015-06-01 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2014-06-14 Listed $340,000 MARMLS
• 2007-02-12 Sold (MLS) $295,000 MARMLS
• 2007-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 1995-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 1973-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,281 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.