604 Locust Ave · Paducah, KY 42003

$44,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,066 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1922 6,534 sqft lot $42/sqft · 41% below area Est $76k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer upper, starter or investment home.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1922
• Listed 81 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 4.5% in Paducah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#197 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Paducah Independent (town): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #122 of 165 in KY (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $45k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.58%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,778
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -40.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2243 Dixie Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-6%)	7mo	$54,000	$54	71
1010 Yarbro Ln	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,037 (-3%)	10mo	$125,000	$121	60
2135 Sunset Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,048 (-2%)	9mo	$119,900	$114	58
2140 Dixie Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-6%)	15mo	$138,000	$138	58
249 Clements St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,039 (-2%)	10mo	$91,000	$88	51
290 Clements St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (+7%)	5mo	$106,000	$93	51
513 Thurman St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,158 (+9%)	17mo	$143,000	$123	49
1031 Vasseur Ave	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,056 (-1%)	19mo	$125,000	$118	49
146 Clements St	0.75mi	2/1.0	1,045 (-2%)	20mo	$104,000	$100	45
1942 Hendricks St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,150 (+8%)	18mo	$94,000	$82	38
164 Woodward St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,133 (+6%)	15mo	$132,500	$117	37
257 Clements St	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,192 (+12%)	17mo	$115,000	$96	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $28,482
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $70,855
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42003

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,077 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $422/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $366

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $44,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,900 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $44,900 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,900 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $44,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,900 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $54,900 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    price $54,900 40-char remark

    Show marketing remark (40 chars)

    Fixer upper, starter or investment home.

17. 2026-04-10
    price $56,900 40-char remark

    Show marketing remark (40 chars)

    Fixer upper, starter or investment home.

18. 2026-03-29
    listed $64,900 Active 40-char remark

    Show marketing remark (40 chars)

    Fixer upper, starter or investment home.

19. 2002-01-15
    soldstatus $23,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $422 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $422 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$422
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,034
• − Management: −$1,034
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $6,387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,533
• After-tax cash flow: $5,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paducah Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104650
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $30,067
• Composite: 23.41/100
• National rank: #7896
• State rank: #122 of 165 in KY

Livability — Paducah

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #9780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paducah, KY
• City population: 30,856
• Population (ZIP): 29,384

Population outlook (McCracken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,237 people
• By 2030: 63,468 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 61,221 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 58,432 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 52,668 · -18.0%
• By 2100: 44,517 · -30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McCracken

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.9% · R 66.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+32.5 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.31%
• Current HPI: 236.3013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+133.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $54,900 WKRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $56,900 WKRMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $64,900 WKRMLS
• 2002-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records