1050 County Road 1218 · Moberly, MO 65270

$159,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2007 0.31 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.5% in Moberly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #3,045 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Moberly (town): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #246 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,307 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.74%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-17,083
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,669
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65270

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,236

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $230	-5% $185	+0% $139	+5% $94	+10% $49
Rent	-10% $28	-5% $84	+0% $139	+5% $195	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $220	-0.5pp $180	base $139	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-17
   listed $159,900 Active
4. 2026-04-16
   listed $159,900 Active
5. 2026-03-31
   price $159,900
6. 2026-03-31
   price $159,900
7. 2026-03-17
   price $167,500
8. 2026-03-17
   price $167,500
9. 2026-03-02
   price $172,900
10. 2026-03-02
    price $172,900
11. 2026-02-03
    status Active
12. 2026-02-03
    listed $179,000 Active
13. 2025-10-15
    price $164,500
14. 2025-10-15
    price $164,500
15. 2025-08-29
    listed $179,000 Active
16. 2025-08-29
    listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,551 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$691/yr (+$58/mo · 80.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,357
• − Management: −$1,357
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,024
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$246
• After-tax cash flow: $1,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moberly
• NCES district ID: 2921100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,160
• Composite: 27.35/100
• National rank: #6984
• State rank: #246 of 324 in MO

Livability — Moberly

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #3045

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,762

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,596 people
• By 2030: 24,213 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 23,184 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 22,081 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 18,994 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 15,070 · -38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 23.3% · R 75.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.9pp toward R · 2008: -23.3pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+36.6 2008: R+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.15%
• Current HPI: 199.9743
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — RCBR
• 2026-05-12 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $159,900 RCBR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $159,900 CBORMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $159,900 CBORMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $159,900 RCBR
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $167,500 RCBR
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $167,500 CBORMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $172,900 CBORMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $172,900 RCBR
• 2026-02-03 Relisted — CBORMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $179,000 RCBR
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $164,500 CBORMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $164,500 RCBR
• 2025-08-29 Listed $179,000 RCBR
• 2025-08-29 Listed $179,000 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $860 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.