400 N Mill St #48 · Creswell, OR 97426

$64,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $91k · 29% under $600/mo HOA · 45% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great condition, 2 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, approx 1172 square foot home in quiet location in park. Fresh exterior paint, larger primary bedroom with large closet and ensuite bathroom. Good sized bonus room, washer & dryer included. Nice backyard with deck and area to garden. Covered carport, big tool/garden shed, 55+ park.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Bonus room
• Area to garden

Tags

• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• BONUS ROOM
• WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED
• BACKYARD WITH DECK
• AREA TO GARDEN
• COVERED CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit dimensions: 40' x 24'; Located on leased park land (lot rent/monthly)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee covers water, sewer and trash; Association/lot rent paid monthly ($600)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport; Attached carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Single-story (main living on one level); No notable view
• Construction: Built in 1979; Composition and membrane roofing; Taped interior finish
• Exterior features: Deck; Garden; Rain barrel/cistern; Tool shed; Lap siding; Paved road access; Leased land (park lot)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite and closet; Second bedroom on main level with closet
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wall-to-wall carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window unit(s) for cooling; Electric water heater
• Interior features: One-level accessibility; Laundry area with washer/dryer hookups; Vinyl flooring and wall-to-wall carpet; Vinyl window frames; Crawl space foundation
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer (hookups included)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($648/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.7% in Creswell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#80 in OR, #3,631 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Creswell SD 40 (town): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #78 of 183 in OR (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Creslane Elementary School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #309 of 412 statewide, top 77%, 509 students, 68% FRL); Creswell Middle School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #61 of 128 statewide, top 54%, 265 students, 43% FRL); Creswell High School (360 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Creswell SD 40 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $450 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 45% of rent.

Recommended offer $63,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.56%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,200
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
400 N Mill St #1	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	962 (+0%)	8mo	$17,800	$19	88
700 N Mill St #56	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	950 (-1%)	7mo	$90,000	$95	79
700 N Mill St #21	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+4%)	1mo	$126,500	$127	79
400 N Mill St	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+5%)	22mo	$35,000	$35	74
700 N Mill St #107	0.19mi	2/1.0	840 (-12%)	2mo	$63,900	$76	64
700 N Mill St #75	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+12%)	9mo	$107,000	$99	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-6,724
• Equity at exit: $9,684

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $48
• Equity at exit: $5,616

Cash invested: $18,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97426

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,343 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $476/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$600
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,275

Max offer price $64,950

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,238
• Closing costs: $1,948
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
92 N 8th St Unit 97 Creswell, OR	2.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	43d	1	0.63mi
101 N 10th St Apt 4 Creswell, OR	2.0	1.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	43d	1	0.73mi
703 Kings Row Creswell, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,395	$1.49	43d	1	0.75mi
703 Kings Row Creswell, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,395	$1.49	13d	1	0.75mi
101 N 10th St Unit 15 Creswell, OR	2.0	1.0	770	$1,350	$1.75	21d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $600 · $7,200/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $64,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $630 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$154/yr (+$13/mo · 32.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,638
• − Property taxes: −$476
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − HOA: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$1,889
• Taxable income: $13
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3
• After-tax cash flow: $644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Creswell SD 40
• NCES district ID: 4103690
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,499
• Composite: 40.38/100
• National rank: #7748
• State rank: #78 of 183 in OR

Livability — Creswell

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #3631

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Creswell, OR
• Population (ZIP): 10,384

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.51%
• Current HPI: 311.4445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $64,950 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $476 · +32.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.