808 53rd Ave E #301 · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34203

$180,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 185 Days on market

Built 1982 6,316 sqft lot Est $156k · 16% over $275/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Palm Lake Estates and the highly desirable 301 J, where tranquil water views and Florida’s coastal breezes greet you from the moment you arrive. This spacious two-bedroom, two-bath home offers over 1,200 square feet of comfortable living with a bright, open layout designed for relaxed everyday enjoyment. Natural light fills the home, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere, while stunning sunset views provide the perfect backdrop for peaceful evenings. Enjoy the freedom of NO lot rent and a low $275 monthly maintenance fee, which includes water, sewer, trash, cable, internet, on-site management, and full access to the clubhouse and sparkling community pool. Palm Lake Estate

Key facts

• 6,316 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Total annual fees $3,300; Total monthly fees $275; Furnished
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Frankie) — monthly fee required, association approval required; Condo/association fees $275 monthly; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Additional water: 5-acre lake
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Roof over
• Exterior features: Storage; Lakefront property with lake view (55 ft frontage); Road surfaced with asphalt

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Crawlspace foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-589/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, schools F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 384 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $180k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 4→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
808 53rd Ave E #273	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,288 (-1%)	4mo	$154,000	$120	86
808 53rd Ave E Unit 184J	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,324 (+2%)	3mo	$110,000	$83	85
808 53rd Ave E #75	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,266 (-2%)	2mo	$149,000	$118	79
808 53rd Ave E #117	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+11%)	1mo	$190,000	$132	71
808 53rd Ave E Unit 142K	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	5mo	$160,000	$119	70
808 53rd Ave E #108	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-11%)	4mo	$135,000	$117	60
204 52nd Avenue Ter E	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-7%)	6mo	$115,000	$96	57
209 E 52nd Avenue Plz E	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-11%)	1mo	$165,500	$144	52
5512 Colleen Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+6%)	4mo	$85,000	$62	51
212 52nd Avenue Plz W	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,228 (-5%)	8mo	$180,000	$147	50
205 52nd Avenue Ter E	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,124 (-13%)	1mo	$180,000	$160	50
305 52nd Avenue Plz E	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,153 (-11%)	9mo	$200,000	$173	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-37,354
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-56,079
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34203

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,780 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,941/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$275
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,843

Max offer price $171,331

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5613 8th St Ct E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	23d	1	0.11mi
716 56th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	3d	1	0.12mi
409 57th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,375	$1.14	10d	1	0.21mi
408 57th Avenue Dr E Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,350	$1.12	10d	1	0.25mi
408 57th Avenue Dr E Apt E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,375	$1.14	11d	1	0.25mi
808 53rd Ave E #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,450	$1.20	16d	1	0.25mi
312 57th Avenue Dr E Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,350	$1.12	3d	1	0.28mi
308 57th Avenue Dr E Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,350	$1.12	3d	1	0.30mi
1011 57th Avenue Ter E Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1872	$2,195	$1.17	11d	1	0.31mi
304 57th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,362	$1.13	3d	5	0.31mi
304 57th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,445	$1.20	23d	3	0.31mi
5828 3rd St E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1036	$1,995	$1.93	23d	1	0.37mi
5323 11th Street Cir E Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	23d	1	0.43mi
1109 59th Avenue Cir E Unit 1109 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	945	$1,795	$1.90	23d	1	0.56mi
5719 14th St E Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	978	$1,425	$1.46	3d	1	0.59mi
613 61st Avenue Ter E Unit 613 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1194	$2,195	$1.84	16d	1	0.69mi
5580 Fountain Lake Cir Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$1,908	$1.81	2d	38	0.74mi
1022 61st Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	970	$1,450	$1.49	16d	1	0.75mi
5502 8th Street Ct W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,595	$1.78	23d	1	0.83mi
3 Date Ave Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	23d	1	0.84mi
1207 62nd Ave E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1018	$1,995	$1.96	23d	1	0.86mi
512 60th Avenue Ter W Unit 512 Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.5	972	$1,900	$1.95	10d	1	0.88mi
6205 12th Street Ct E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1018	$1,895	$1.86	23d	1	0.89mi
503 51st Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	882	$1,075	$1.22	11d	1	0.93mi
503 51st Ave W Unit 503 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	882	$1,275	$1.45	23d	1	0.93mi
1007 57th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	967	$1,495	$1.55	10d	1	0.96mi
708 65th Ave E Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1800	$2,195	$1.22	16d	1	1.14mi
1345 301 Blvd E Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,320	$1.51	23d	9	1.15mi
202 46th Avenue Ter W #409 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1086	$1,995	$1.84	23d	1	1.20mi
203 46th Avenue Ter W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	880	$1,099	$1.25	3d	1	1.21mi
4630 5th St W Ste 6 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	11d	1	1.27mi
907 Fruitland Ave Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$2,450	$1.46	23d	1	1.30mi
6509 Magellan Ct Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	14d	1	1.38mi
5513 18th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	23d	1	1.40mi
723 44th Ave E Unit 5 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	16d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $275 · $3,300/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashinternetcablepool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-11-25
   listed $180,000 Active
2. 1993-03-19
   soldstatus $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,941 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,941 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 4 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,941
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,709
• − Management: −$1,709
• − HOA: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$3,512
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$843
• After-tax cash flow: $254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,618
• Household income: $70,761
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1469.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.87%
• Current HPI: 295.8871
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+172.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-25 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,941 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.