Hayden Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$383,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,809 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The exciting, two-story Hayden home offers plenty of flex space with bright and airy rooms. Upon entering this home, you are greeted with the stairway to your second floor, as well as your convenient downstairs powder bathroom and entry to your private study room. You can opt to turn the study room into a bedroom if you need extra space for guests. Traveling down the foyer, you will be captivated by the open-concept layout that flows from the two-story family room to the inviting dining space and spacious kitchen. This area boasts a ton of options such as an appealing fireplace for your family room, and an extra sink in your kitchen to serve as a wetbar! This layout is perfect for entertaining gatherings of any size. Your kitchen also comes with attractive features like sleek granite countertops, ceramic tile backsplash, industry-leading appliances, and a kitchen island! Right off the kitchen is entry to your walk-in utility and your two-car garage. You can even add on extra space, turning your garage into a two-and a half car or three-car garage! For those that love spending quality time with family outdoors, the Hayden plan gives you the ability to include a sizable covered patio in your backyard. Back inside, you are met with your deluxe master retreat featuring a huge walk-in closet and a divine master bathroom. Your master bathroom features dual vanities, a bathtub and a stand alone shower that you can transform into a super shower if you desire. Head upstairs where. ..

Key facts

• Kitchen island
• Private study room
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• PRIVATE STUDY ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SLEEK GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH
• INDUSTRY-LEADING APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $383,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $429,035.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $384k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-515 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $355k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,101/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $310,143 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.14%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $429,035
• List price: $383,990
• Delta: -10.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13507 Golden Isle Dr	0.20mi	4/3.5	2,772 (-1%)	1mo	$448,775	$162	84
13423 Harbor Point Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,731 (-3%)	1mo	$445,990	$163	80
13618 Hartwell Bend Dr	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,875 (+2%)	1mo	$439,990	$153	73
3406 Bright Keel Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,582 (-8%)	0mo	$396,990	$154	71
13602 Hartwell Bend Dr	0.34mi	4/4.0	2,679 (-5%)	1mo	$499,990	$187	70
2714 Arbor Edge Xing	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,811 (+0%)	2mo	$377,000	$134	66
2821 Golden Isle Dr	0.18mi	4/4.0	3,185 (+13%)	0mo	$560,290	$176	63
2307 Sweet Bay Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,671 (-5%)	1mo	$309,900	$116	63
2926 Nova Beach Dr	0.39mi	4/3.5	3,136 (+12%)	0mo	$489,968	$156	58
3214 Bolt Rope Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,452 (-13%)	1mo	$339,990	$139	53
2816 Mackinac Bay Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	2,666 (-5%)	1mo	$452,990	$170	53
2820 Mackinac Bay Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,517 (-10%)	1mo	$441,990	$176	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-99,273
• Equity at exit: $63,971

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-115,959
• Equity at exit: $37,095

Cash invested: $120,130 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$536 /mo · $6,436/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $-515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,753

Max offer price $354,538

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,259
• Closing costs: $12,871
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	1d	1	0.55mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	11d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $383,990 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $383,990 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $383,990 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $383,990 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $383,990 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $383,990 Active 434 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $383,990 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $383,990 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $383,990 Active 429 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $383,990 Active 428 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $383,990 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $383,990 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $383,990 Active 425 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $383,990 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The exciting, two-story Hayden home offers plenty of flex space with bright and airy rooms. Upon entering this home, you are greeted with the stairway to your second floor, as well as your convenient downstairs powder bathroom and entry to your private study room. You can opt to turn the study room into a bedroom if you need extra space for guests. Traveling down the foyer, you will be captivated by the open-concept layout that flows from the two-story family room to the inviting dining space and spacious kitchen. This area boasts a ton of options such as an appealing fireplace for your family room, and an extra sink in your kitchen to serve as a wetbar! This layout is perfect for entertaining gatherings of any size. Your kitchen also comes with attractive features like sleek granite countertops, ceramic tile backsplash, industry-leading appliances, and a kitchen island! Right off the kitchen is entry to your walk-in utility and your two-car garage. You can even add on extra space, turning your garage into a two-and a half car or three-car garage! For those that love spending quality time with family outdoors, the Hayden plan gives you the ability to include a sizable covered patio in your backyard. Back inside, you are met with your deluxe master retreat featuring a huge walk-in closet and a divine master bathroom. Your master bathroom features dual vanities, a bathtub and a stand alone shower that you can transform into a super shower if you desire. Head upstairs where. ..

15. 2025-04-01
    listed $387,990 Active 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The exciting, two-story Hayden home offers plenty of flex space with bright and airy rooms. Upon entering this home, you are greeted with the stairway to your second floor, as well as your convenient downstairs powder bathroom and entry to your private study room. You can opt to turn the study room into a bedroom if you need extra space for guests. Traveling down the foyer, you will be captivated by the open-concept layout that flows from the two-story family room to the inviting dining space and spacious kitchen. This area boasts a ton of options such as an appealing fireplace for your family room, and an extra sink in your kitchen to serve as a wetbar! This layout is perfect for entertaining gatherings of any size. Your kitchen also comes with attractive features like sleek granite countertops, ceramic tile backsplash, industry-leading appliances, and a kitchen island! Right off the kitchen is entry to your walk-in utility and your two-car garage. You can even add on extra space, turning your garage into a two-and a half car or three-car garage! For those that love spending quality time with family outdoors, the Hayden plan gives you the ability to include a sizable covered patio in your backyard. Back inside, you are met with your deluxe master retreat featuring a huge walk-in closet and a divine master bathroom. Your master bathroom features dual vanities, a bathtub and a stand alone shower that you can transform into a super shower if you desire. Head upstairs where. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,033
• − Property taxes: −$6,436
• − Insurance: −$2,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,977
• − Management: −$2,977
• − Depreciation: −$12,481
• Taxable loss: −$13,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,320
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Hayden Plan home in Texas City, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $383,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Listed $387,990 Zillow