9761 Lake Dr · North Weeki Wachee, FL 34613

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Manufactured public records · 178 Days on market

Built 1968 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Virtually Staged. MOTIVATED SELLERS! Rare lakefront opportunity in Highland Lakes, Weeki Wachee: completely renovated 3BR/1BA manufactured home on an expansive 0.40-acre lot (approx. 15,250 SF). Enjoy a serene lakefront setting at the rear of the property, plus a fully fenced, tree-shaded yard with a gazebo equipped with water and electricity, a 30-amp RV outlet, and additional storage structures. The home features a front Florida room/enclosed porch, vinyl plank flooring in the bedrooms, tile flooring in the remaining areas, soft-close cabinetry, granite countertops, and a remodeled bathroom with updated fixtures and shower. New roof installed in February 2025. Well and septic. Convenient

Key facts

• Lakefront lot
• Completely fenced
• Well-water system

Tags

• LAKEFRONT LOT
• FULLY REMODELED BATHROOM
• NEW ROOF
• WELL-WATER SYSTEM
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• COMPLETELY FENCED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.4 acres (approx. 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); Road surface: Asphalt; Water view: Lake
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt road access
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One level; Facing west
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Estimated living area 832 square feet; Building area 1064 square feet; Built as single wide
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; Lake view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.9% in North Weeki Wachee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#534 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 691 active listings in the ZIP; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $135k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.68%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-10,478
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,540
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34613

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 691
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,356 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,534/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,129

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $217	+0% $179	+5% $141	+10% $103
Rent	-10% $72	-5% $125	+0% $179	+5% $233	+10% $286
Rate	-1.0pp $247	-0.5pp $213	base $179	+0.5pp $144	+1.0pp $108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $135,000 Active 170 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,990 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,990 Active 166 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,990 Active 165 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,990 Active 164 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,990 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-04-25
    price $139,990
13. 2026-02-19
    price $150,000
14. 2025-12-19
    listed $157,000 Active
15. 2024-12-06
    soldstatus $60,000
16. 2024-03-15
    historical
17. 2024-03-14
    historical
18. 2024-01-15
    price $120,000
19. 2023-09-18
    listed $130,000 Active
20. 2023-09-18
    listed $130,000 Active
21. 2019-10-29
    soldstatus $60,000
22. 2019-10-28
    soldstatus $60,000
23. 2019-06-28
    listed $60,000
24. 2018-04-16
    soldstatus $26,000
25. 2018-04-16
    soldstatus $26,000
26. 2018-03-27
    listed $34,900
27. 2018-03-27
    listed $34,900
28. 2002-04-26
    soldstatus $24,000
29. 2002-03-12
    listed $29,900
30. 1999-06-28
    soldstatus $27,000
31. 1995-05-12
    soldstatus $11,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,534 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,534 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,534
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,302
• − Management: −$1,302
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$32
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8
• After-tax cash flow: $2,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Weeki Wachee

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Weeki Wachee, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 18,280
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,337
• Household income: $58,596
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.51%
• Current HPI: 276.2229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1117.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $139,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listed $157,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-15 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2024-03-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-15 Price Changed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-18 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-18 Listed $130,000 HCAR
• 2019-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-28 Sold (MLS) $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-28 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-16 Sold (MLS) $26,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2018-04-16 Sold (MLS) $26,000 HCAR
• 2018-03-27 Listed $34,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2018-03-27 Listed $34,900 HCAR
• 2002-04-26 Sold (MLS) $24,000 HCAR
• 2002-03-12 Listed $29,900 HCAR
• 1999-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,534 · +150.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.