1621 Church St · Blytheville, AR 72315

$175,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,998 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1966 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This welcoming ranch-style home sits on a corner lot, offering convenient single-level living with thoughtful design. A covered front porch provides an inviting entry point, setting the tone for the comfortable interior that awaits. Inside, four bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms are arranged for practical daily living. The home flows naturally from one space to the next, with bedrooms positioned to maximize privacy and bathrooms strategically placed throughout. A dedicated laundry room keeps household tasks organized and separate from main living areas, adding genuine convenience to everyday routines. The corner lot location provides excellent visibility and traffic flow, while the covered front p

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Corner lot
• 6,534 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Driveway; Paved parking; 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered parking spaces; Open parking available
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: One story; Residential property; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Crawl space / no basement
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Covered patio; Outbuilding; Corner lot; Irregular lot; Wooded lot; Paved road

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#168 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Blytheville School District (town): math 8% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #233 of 238 in AR (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 96% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Blytheville Primary School (431 students, 97% FRL); Blytheville Middle School (math 6% / reading 14%, grade F, #195 of 201 statewide, top 97%, 324 students, 100% FRL); Blytheville High School (math 5% / reading 14%, grade F, #280 of 292 statewide, top 96%, 460 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools at 99% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 69 units permitted in Mississippi County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mississippi County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $175k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.22%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $39,960
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1612 Willow St	0.04mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,160 (+8%)	13mo	$185,000	$86	65
1520 W Walnut St	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,044 (+2%)	22mo	$75,000	$37	62
1315 W Main St	0.45mi	3/4.0 (-1)	1,911 (-4%)	2mo	$60,000	$31	59
1007 W Main St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,987 (-1%)	8mo	$62,900	$32	54
1519 Chickasawba St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,802 (-10%)	11mo	$30,000	$17	50
1036 Ash St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,934 (-3%)	7mo	$16,500	$9	48
1028 W Walnut St	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,212 (+11%)	10mo	$5,500	$2	47
1004 W Hardin St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,864 (-7%)	8mo	$35,000	$19	44
1000 W Ash	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,841 (-8%)	17mo	$37,000	$20	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-22,667
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-12,613
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72315

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $772/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,335

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $140	+0% $90	+5% $41	+10% $-9
Rent	-10% $-24	-5% $33	+0% $90	+5% $148	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $135	base $90	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $-1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1529 Basin St Blytheville, AR	4.0	1.5	1444	$1,450	$1.00	21d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-04
    listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $772 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$348/yr (+$29/mo · 45.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$772
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,925
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$462
• After-tax cash flow: $1,548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blytheville School District
• NCES district ID: 0503320
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $33,356
• Composite: 8.02/100
• National rank: #9922
• State rank: #233 of 238 in AR

Livability — Blytheville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #14094

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blytheville, AR
• City population: 20,100
• Population (ZIP): 20,100

Population outlook (Mississippi County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,959 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 31,526 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 27,058 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 17,847 · -54.2%
• By 2100: 11,024 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mississippi

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.4% · R 65.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.4pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+22.2 2016: R+10.5 2012: R+1.1 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.32%
• Current HPI: 175.5603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+59.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $175,000 EARA
• 2015-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $772 · -11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.