505 Road 5202 · Dayton, TX 77327

$109,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 8 Days on market

Built 2003 Poor condition 9,583 sqft lot ↓ 36% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy home with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Come and see!

Key facts

• Driveway gate
• Fully fenced
• Large covered patio

Tags

• QUIET AND PRIVATE SETTING
• FULLY FENCED
• DRIVEWAY GATE
• LARGE COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 2-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces east
• Construction: Built in 2003; Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Free-standing range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 14 x 13; Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 10; Bedroom (first floor) — 9 x 10; Living room (first floor) — 14 x 11; Total rooms: 4; 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Santa Fe El (919 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.68%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-6,048
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $15,296
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $813/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,413

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $186	+0% $155	+5% $124	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $28	-5% $92	+0% $155	+5% $219	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $210	-0.5pp $183	base $155	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $109,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $109,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $109,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   price $109,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-05-28
   price $115,000
8. 2026-05-27
   listed $125,000 Active
9. 2024-12-18
   soldstatus
10. 2024-12-14
    soldstatus Sold 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Cozy home with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Come and see!

11. 2024-12-05
    status Pending 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Cozy home with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Come and see!

12. 2024-11-30
    listed $119,500 Active 56-char remark

    Show marketing remark (56 chars)

    Cozy home with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Come and see!

13. 2023-11-17
    historical
14. 2023-10-20
    price $130,000
15. 2023-04-20
    price $155,000
16. 2023-04-19
    status Active
17. 2023-04-18
    historical
18. 2023-01-10
    price $175,000
19. 2022-10-21
    listed $180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $813 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,011 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,199/yr (+$100/mo · 147.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$813
• − Insurance: −$5,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $390
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$94
• After-tax cash flow: $1,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major fence — Significant wear and tear
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and aged
• Major roof — No visible damage but likely needs inspection

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both repair and paint interior walls — Improves living space and value
• Both replace roof — Essential for structural integrity and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
fence · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered and aged	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible damage but likely needs inspection	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair and paint interior walls — Improves living space and value ↑
• Both replace roof — Essential for structural integrity and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-36.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-12-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-12-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-11-30 Listed $119,500 HARMLS
• 2023-11-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-20 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-20 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-04-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-01-10 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-21 Listed $180,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $813 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.