432 Santa FE Rd E · Tavares, FL 32778

$174,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 366 Days on market

Built 1990 6,300 sqft lot Est $208k · 16% under $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLER MOTIVATED NEW LOWER PRICE! * * * OWNER WILL CONTRIBUTE $5K AT CLOSING TOWARDS UPGRADES. * * * Welcome to the highly sought-after Fox Run community, nestled on the shores of scenic Lake Harris. This 55+ community offers a great place for retirement with community perks: Live your best lake life with a private marina, boat ramp, fishing, and boating. Plus, Fox Run offers two pools, shuffleboard, billiards, concerts, Bingo nights, and much more and boat slips to have you boat ready to go out onto the canal leading to the Harris Chain of Lakes. Conveniently located close to shopping, restaurants and 16 minutes from Mission Resort & Golf Club. With low HOA fees, this commun

Key facts

• Billiards
• Private marina
• Fox run community

Tags

• FOX RUN COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE MARINA
• BOAT RAMP
• TWO POOLS
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• BILLIARDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment; Deed restrictions
• Financial info: Total annual fees $720; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $60 (Top Notch Management Company); HOA includes common area taxes and grounds maintenance; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, park, shuffleboard court; Association approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs, up to 35 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Sprinkler well
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces east
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double-wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front screened porch; Sliding doors; Landscaped yard; Level, paved lot in city limits; Community boat ramp & dock (access to Harris Chain of Lakes)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room / dining room combo; Window treatments; Storage rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry room (outside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $174k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.43%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,320
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3033 Myakka River Rd	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,337 (-0%)	1mo	$219,900	$164	92
432 King Way	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,416 (+5%)	12mo	$153,700	$109	79
2808 Wekiva Rd	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,432 (+6%)	7mo	$221,700	$155	74
2828 Manatee Rd	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-15%)	5mo	$167,500	$146	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-14,763
• Equity at exit: $26,019

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $10,444
• Equity at exit: $15,088

Cash invested: $48,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$915
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,708/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,612

Max offer price $174,500

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $279	-5% $230	+0% $180	+5% $131	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $108	+0% $180	+5% $253	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $268	-0.5pp $225	base $180	+0.5pp $135	+1.0pp $89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,625
• Closing costs: $5,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3224 Manatee Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,600	$1.02	5d	1	0.13mi
4950 Marsh Harbor Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$2,050	$1.67	5d	1	0.36mi
4567 Barbuda Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,150	$1.58	24d	1	0.37mi
500 E Rosewood Ln Unit 154 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,650	$1.45	24d	1	0.47mi
4721 Treasure Cay Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,000	$1.46	15d	1	0.48mi
741 W Rosewood Ln Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,195	$1.06	4d	1	0.50mi
459 E Rosewood Ln #157 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	22d	1	0.50mi
615 Juniper Way Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,900	$1.57	18d	1	0.75mi
465 Oak Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	3.0	1550	$1,750	$1.13	24d	1	0.99mi
1585 Dead River Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,990	$1.89	24d	1	1.02mi
30024 Tavares Ridge Blvd Unit 62 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,000	$1.75	24d	1	1.11mi
2106 Shantiniketan Blvd Unit B6 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	5d	1	1.28mi
123 N Lake Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,595	$1.42	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,500 Active 366 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,500 Active 363 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,500 Active 362 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,500 Active 361 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,500 Active 360 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,500 Active 358 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,500 Active 354 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,500 Active 353 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,500 Active 352 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $174,500 Active 349 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,500 Active 348 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,500 Active 347 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,500 Active 346 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,500 Active 345 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $174,500
16. 2026-01-16
    price $179,000
17. 2025-09-30
    price $188,800
18. 2025-06-20
    listed $199,000 Active
19. 2013-08-14
    soldstatus $68,000
20. 2012-01-23
    listed $78,500
21. 1990-06-01
    soldstatus $70,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,708 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,708 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,775
• − Property taxes: −$2,708
• − Insurance: −$872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$5,076
• Taxable loss: −$603
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$145
• After-tax cash flow: $2,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tavares, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+148.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $174,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $188,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2012-01-23 Listed $78,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $70,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,708 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.