990 Dogwood Estates Rd · Pell City, AL 35125

$64,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1996 7.10 ac lot ↓ 32% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Investment opportunity! 7.1 Acres total. One 5 Acre Parcel and another 2.1 Acre parcel on the back right side of the main parcel. 3 Bedroom and 1 Bath home in need of renovations. No lock box. House is open. Go to the end of Dogwood Estates Road. Then proceed 20 or 30 yards onto dirt road. Take immediate right and go up the hill to the house.

Key facts

• 7.1 acre lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 42 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $767 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 2.4% in Pell City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#50 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Pell City (town): math 17% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #67 of 129 in AL (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eden Elementary School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #331 of 627 statewide, top 57%, 394 students, 68% FRL); Pell City High School (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #181 of 305 statewide, top 60%, 1,171 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 557 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $54k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,953 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.63%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $38,318
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $96,246
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35125

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $509/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $767

Break-even live

Break-even rent $519

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2023-07-20
   soldstatus $54,000
2. 2023-06-15
   status Pending
3. 2023-05-16
   price $64,900
4. 2023-05-08
   price $72,900
5. 2023-05-04
   listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $509 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $509 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$509
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $8,656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,077
• After-tax cash flow: $7,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pell City
• NCES district ID: 0102650
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,051
• Composite: 26.04/100
• National rank: #7303
• State rank: #67 of 129 in AL

Livability — Pell City

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #8246

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,546
• Population (ZIP): 10,969

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,158 people
• By 2030: 97,008 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 101,615 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 104,537 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 109,350 · +16.1%
• By 2100: 106,785 · +13.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.1) · D 17.6% · R 81.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -63.2pp · 2024: -64.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.1 2020: R+64.0 2016: R+68.6 2012: R+66.1 2008: R+63.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.53%
• Current HPI: 182.9461
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-32.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2023-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-15 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-05-16 Price Changed $64,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-05-08 Price Changed $72,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-05-04 Listed $79,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+19.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $509 · +18.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.