4955 State Highway 119 · Yorktown, TX 77963

$44,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 794 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1949 0.25 ac lot ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming property sits right in the heart of Weesatche and has so much opportunity! You will appreciate the large lot and carport upon arrival. There is much potential with this property be it an affordable primary residence, a rental property, or a fix-and-flip investment, and it has been priced competitively leaving much room for TLC so that you can create your vision. Schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Rental property
• Large lot
• Carport

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• CARPORT
• RENTAL PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $432 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($958 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#382 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Goliad ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #370 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Goliad County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Goliad County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,859 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.25%
• DSCR: 2.84
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $20,271
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.23×
• Total profit: $53,188
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77963

• Home prices YoY: -14.1%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $845/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $432

Break-even live

Break-even rent $411

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $44,900 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,900 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $44,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,900 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $44,900 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $44,900 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $44,900 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    This charming property sits right in the heart of Weesatche and has so much opportunity! You will appreciate the large lot and carport upon arrival. There is much potential with this property be it an affordable primary residence, a rental property, or a fix-and-flip investment, and it has been priced competitively leaving much room for TLC so that you can create your vision. Schedule a showing today!

18. 2026-04-13
    price $47,500 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    This charming property sits right in the heart of Weesatche and has so much opportunity! You will appreciate the large lot and carport upon arrival. There is much potential with this property be it an affordable primary residence, a rental property, or a fix-and-flip investment, and it has been priced competitively leaving much room for TLC so that you can create your vision. Schedule a showing today!

19. 2026-03-06
    listed $49,900 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    This charming property sits right in the heart of Weesatche and has so much opportunity! You will appreciate the large lot and carport upon arrival. There is much potential with this property be it an affordable primary residence, a rental property, or a fix-and-flip investment, and it has been priced competitively leaving much room for TLC so that you can create your vision. Schedule a showing today!

20. 2026-03-01
    historical
21. 2025-11-05
    listed $69,900 Active
22. 2023-12-31
    historical
23. 2023-10-25
    status Active
24. 2023-09-30
    historical
25. 2023-02-21
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $845 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $845 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$845
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$920
• − Management: −$920
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $4,765
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,144
• After-tax cash flow: $4,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goliad ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821030
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,198
• Composite: 35.12/100
• National rank: #5015
• State rank: #370 of 826 in TX

Livability — Yorktown

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #382
• US rank: #8009

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,418
• Population (ZIP): 5,109

Population outlook (Goliad County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,337 people
• By 2030: 8,754 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 9,581 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 10,448 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 12,946 · +55.3%
• By 2100: 14,392 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 17% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Goliad

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.5% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.7pp toward R · 2008: -26.5pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+33.8 2008: R+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.59%
• Current HPI: 185.8947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-35.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $44,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $47,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $49,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $69,900 CTXMLS
• 2023-12-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2023-10-25 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2023-09-30 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2023-02-21 Listed $69,900 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $845 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.