416 Baker Cir · Ames, TX 77575

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 366 Days on market

Built 1952 0.46 ac lot ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming single-story home in Liberty, TX with plenty of yard space and great potential. This cozy residence features a simple, functional layout with an inviting front porch and open green surroundings. Included in the sale is the adjacent vacant lot (Parcel #002360-000033-001), offering extra space for a garden, future expansion, or additional development. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for flexible use in a quiet, established area.

Key facts

• Inviting front porch
• Great potential
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• OPEN GREEN SURROUNDINGS
• GREAT POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,232 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty ISD (town): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #464 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.58%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $8,985
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $38,331
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77575

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,331 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,072/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $863

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $420	-5% $395	+0% $369	+5% $344	+10% $318
Rent	-10% $264	-5% $317	+0% $369	+5% $422	+10% $474
Rate	-1.0pp $414	-0.5pp $392	base $369	+0.5pp $346	+1.0pp $322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 366 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 365 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 364 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 363 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 361 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 360 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 357 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 356 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 355 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 352 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 351 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 350 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 349 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 348 DOM
15. 2025-12-30
    status Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Charming single-story home in Liberty, TX with plenty of yard space and great potential. This cozy residence features a simple, functional layout with an inviting front porch and open green surroundings. Included in the sale is the adjacent vacant lot (Parcel #002360-000033-001), offering extra space for a garden, future expansion, or additional development. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for flexible use in a quiet, established area.

16. 2025-12-29
    historical 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Charming single-story home in Liberty, TX with plenty of yard space and great potential. This cozy residence features a simple, functional layout with an inviting front porch and open green surroundings. Included in the sale is the adjacent vacant lot (Parcel #002360-000033-001), offering extra space for a garden, future expansion, or additional development. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for flexible use in a quiet, established area.

17. 2025-10-22
    price $90,000 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Charming single-story home in Liberty, TX with plenty of yard space and great potential. This cozy residence features a simple, functional layout with an inviting front porch and open green surroundings. Included in the sale is the adjacent vacant lot (Parcel #002360-000033-001), offering extra space for a garden, future expansion, or additional development. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for flexible use in a quiet, established area.

18. 2025-09-15
    price $108,000 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Charming single-story home in Liberty, TX with plenty of yard space and great potential. This cozy residence features a simple, functional layout with an inviting front porch and open green surroundings. Included in the sale is the adjacent vacant lot (Parcel #002360-000033-001), offering extra space for a garden, future expansion, or additional development. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for flexible use in a quiet, established area.

19. 2025-08-18
    price $120,000 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Charming single-story home in Liberty, TX with plenty of yard space and great potential. This cozy residence features a simple, functional layout with an inviting front porch and open green surroundings. Included in the sale is the adjacent vacant lot (Parcel #002360-000033-001), offering extra space for a garden, future expansion, or additional development. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for flexible use in a quiet, established area.

20. 2025-07-05
    status Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Charming single-story home in Liberty, TX with plenty of yard space and great potential. This cozy residence features a simple, functional layout with an inviting front porch and open green surroundings. Included in the sale is the adjacent vacant lot (Parcel #002360-000033-001), offering extra space for a garden, future expansion, or additional development. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for flexible use in a quiet, established area.

21. 2025-07-02
    historical 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Charming single-story home in Liberty, TX with plenty of yard space and great potential. This cozy residence features a simple, functional layout with an inviting front porch and open green surroundings. Included in the sale is the adjacent vacant lot (Parcel #002360-000033-001), offering extra space for a garden, future expansion, or additional development. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for flexible use in a quiet, established area.

22. 2025-06-13
    listed $135,000 Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Charming single-story home in Liberty, TX with plenty of yard space and great potential. This cozy residence features a simple, functional layout with an inviting front porch and open green surroundings. Included in the sale is the adjacent vacant lot (Parcel #002360-000033-001), offering extra space for a garden, future expansion, or additional development. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for flexible use in a quiet, established area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,072 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,072 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$2,072
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,277
• − Management: −$1,277
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,232
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$776
• After-tax cash flow: $3,654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827450
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,931
• Composite: 32.11/100
• National rank: #5803
• State rank: #464 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ames

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1232
• US rank: #21538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ames, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,617

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.17%
• Current HPI: 204.9372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $108,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $135,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,072 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.