1529 30th St · Birmingham, AL 35218

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 843 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1950 7,840 sqft lot Est $61k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Inviting single-story home offering 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with comfortable indoor-outdoor living. Enjoy a screened-in front porch for relaxing mornings and a spacious back porch perfect for gatherings or unwinding. A cozy layout with great usable outdoor spaces. One or more photo(s) was virtually staged.

Key facts

• Spacious back porch
• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SCREENED-IN FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS BACK PORCH
• USABLE OUTDOOR SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($936 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Minor Elementary School (math 0% / reading 14%, grade F, #601 of 627 statewide, top 98%, 454 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($31k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.30%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $60,696
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1529 30th St	0.00mi	2/1.0	843 (0%)	1mo	$65,000	$77	99
1541 30th Street Ensley	0.04mi	3/1.0 (+1)	928 (+10%)	6mo	$5,999	$6	71
2712 Avenue K	0.43mi	2/1.0	858 (+2%)	15mo	$32,000	$37	64
1429 31st Street Ensley	0.13mi	2/1.0	720 (-15%)	7mo	$30,000	$42	63
1105 Pike Rd	0.48mi	2/1.0	884 (+5%)	12mo	$13,000	$15	59
1424 33rd Street Ensley	0.22mi	2/1.0	720 (-15%)	9mo	$67,830	$94	58
1428 35th St	0.34mi	2/1.0	930 (+10%)	13mo	$75,061	$81	56
2808 Avenue H	0.64mi	2/1.0	907 (+8%)	2mo	$65,000	$72	56
3015 Avenue H	0.64mi	2/1.0	880 (+4%)	11mo	$65,000	$74	53
1341 44th St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	892 (+6%)	13mo	$88,052	$99	41
2921 Avenue G	0.70mi	2/1.0	888 (+5%)	22mo	$50,000	$56	41
2301 27th St	0.73mi	2/1.0	917 (+9%)	23mo	$53,000	$58	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $9,325
• Equity at exit: $14,023

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $32,279
• Equity at exit: $13,347

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35218

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $936 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,495/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $623

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1532 31st Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	839	$850	$1.01	44d	1	0.03mi
1501 29th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	772	$800	$1.04	24d	1	0.13mi
1616 28th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1081	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	0.20mi
1521 27th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,000	$0.89	44d	1	0.20mi
1528 34th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	972	$1,073	$1.10	44d	1	0.24mi
2610 Avenue P Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1014	$850	$0.84	44d	1	0.26mi
1417 34th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1103	$1,025	$0.93	44d	1	0.32mi
1609 Pike Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	820	$800	$0.98	19d	5	0.32mi
1306 35th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,173	$1.07	3d	1	0.41mi
1420 Warrior Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1061	$1,050	$0.99	44d	1	0.41mi
1429 Warrior Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1036	$850	$0.82	16d	1	0.43mi
1520 41st Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,195	$1.12	44d	1	0.45mi
1521 22nd Street Ensley Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$875	$1.17	24d	1	0.51mi
1540 42nd Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	899	$1,037	$1.15	44d	1	0.51mi
2037 26th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1074	$995	$0.93	44d	1	0.63mi
1604 44th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	24d	1	0.65mi
1001 21st Street Ensley Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	16d	1	0.68mi
2329 30th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	917	$990	$1.08	24d	1	0.76mi
3012 Avenue X Unit C Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	620	$650	$1.05	12d	1	0.76mi
2421 29th Street Ensley Unit C Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$703	$0.74	24d	1	0.80mi
3212 Avenue G Unit G Ensley, AL	2.0	1.0	902	$850	$0.94	44d	1	0.81mi
1624 19th Street Ensley Apt B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	676	$875	$1.29	24d	1	0.82mi
4724 Court R Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1016	$895	$0.88	14d	1	0.87mi
1429 47th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	768	$750	$0.98	44d	1	0.89mi
931 41st Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1048	$995	$0.95	3d	1	0.90mi
3201 Avenue E Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1056	$925	$0.88	44d	1	0.91mi
4813 Court S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,125	$1.01	44d	1	0.92mi
1316 Court R Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	904	$900	$1.00	10d	1	1.00mi
1309 41st St Fairfield, AL	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,200	$1.12	44d	1	1.01mi
3011 Avenue D Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1000	$795	$0.80	44d	1	1.02mi
3015 Avenue C Unit C Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1000	$825	$0.82	44d	1	1.02mi
708 40th St Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.0	788	$650	$0.82	44d	1	1.04mi
1306 Avenue R Unit R Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	980	$950	$0.97	3d	1	1.04mi
1306 Avenue R Unit R Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	980	$950	$0.97	44d	1	1.04mi
920 47th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1070	$895	$0.84	3d	1	1.08mi
4929 Avenue R Unit R Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	962	$950	$0.99	44d	1	1.13mi
813 46th St Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.0	1100	$825	$0.75	10d	1	1.13mi
621 Valley Rd Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.0	935	$900	$0.96	44d	1	1.14mi
2621 20th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1117	$1,295	$1.16	44d	1	1.17mi
1781 51st Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1069	$950	$0.89	44d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   price $65,000
3. 2026-02-24
   listed $69,900 Active
4. 2025-12-26
   historical $820
5. 2025-12-20
   price $820
6. 2025-12-16
   price $845
7. 2025-12-05
   price $895
8. 2025-12-02
   listed $915
9. 2025-12-02
   historical $915
10. 2025-11-28
    price $915
11. 2025-11-22
    price $945
12. 2025-11-15
    price $965
13. 2025-11-01
    listed $995
14. 2025-11-01
    historical $995
15. 2025-10-31
    listed $995
16. 2025-07-22
    price $65,000
17. 2025-06-05
    price $70,000
18. 2025-05-22
    price $75,000
19. 2025-03-20
    price $78,000
20. 2025-03-07
    price $81,000
21. 2021-05-18
    soldstatus $7,237,964

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,495 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,495 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,495
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$899
• − Management: −$899
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $2,087
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$501
• After-tax cash flow: $2,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 6,981
• Household income: $30,739
• Rent vs Own: 63.9% rent · 36.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 621.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 76% Two or more races 17% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 170.4053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $65,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $69,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-12-26 Rental Removed $820 RENTLY
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $820 RENTLY
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $845 RENTLY
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $895 RENTLY
• 2025-12-02 Listed for Rent $915 RENTLY
• 2025-12-02 Rental Removed $915 ZUMPER1
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $915 ZUMPER1
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $945 ZUMPER1
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $965 ZUMPER1
• 2025-11-01 Listed for Rent $995 ZUMPER1
• 2025-11-01 Rental Removed $995 RENTLY
• 2025-10-31 Listed for Rent $995 RENTLY
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $65,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $70,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $75,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $78,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $81,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $7,237,964 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,495 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.