6338 10th St · Lubbock, TX 79416

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,633 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1993 6,900 sqft lot Est $194k · 8% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

To all those looking for a great project or investors looking to add to their portfolio. This is a great opportunity in a good neighborhood within the popular Frenship School District. This 3 bedroom, 2 Bathroom and 2 Car Garage is looking for a some love and imagination. With nearby school, very functional floor plan, and nicely sized yard it could become a perfect home for any family. You will appreciate the larger sized isolated Master Bedroom and Bathroom along with its own walk in closet. The living room is situated with a central brick fireplace and built-in cabinets that be a great gathering spot with the kitchen nearby. Lots of ways to make this home your own. Bring your buyers, tak

Key facts

• Nicely sized yard
• Built-in cabinets
• Walk in closet

Tags

• FRENSHIP SCHOOL DISTRICT
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• NICELY SIZED YARD
• WALK IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL BRICK FIREPLACE
• BUILT-IN CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-606/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Ridge El (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 738 students, 63% FRL); Terra Vista Middle (math 37% / reading 44%, grade F, #637 of 1,662 statewide, top 39%, 891 students, 66% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 36% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,269 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,327
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6116 10th St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-0%)	14mo	$195,000	$119	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-33,430
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-38,120
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,115/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,717

Max offer price $170,072

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $0	+0% $-51	+5% $-101	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-181	-5% $-116	+0% $-51	+5% $15	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $40	-0.5pp $-5	base $-51	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6336 9th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,650	$1.12	23d	1	0.08mi
6505 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$1,600	$0.98	16d	1	0.13mi
6513 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,750	$1.02	46d	1	0.16mi
6504 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	46d	1	0.19mi
6521 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1865	$1,795	$0.96	46d	1	0.19mi
1106 Kline Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,350	$1.06	23d	1	0.19mi
1003 Oshkosh Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	16d	1	0.32mi
403 Kirby Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$695	$0.39	46d	1	0.37mi
6101 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,375	$1.11	16d	1	0.41mi
1107 Ironton Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	46d	1	0.43mi
6106 9th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1361	$1,350	$0.99	46d	1	0.43mi
6111 10th Dr Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1917	$1,649	$0.86	23d	1	0.49mi
6813 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,550	$1.07	23d	1	0.55mi
6724 4th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1640	$1,500	$0.91	46d	1	0.58mi
6106 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,400	$0.88	46d	1	0.58mi
6806 4th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	46d	1	0.63mi
6806 4th St Unit D Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1640	$1,550	$0.95	46d	1	0.63mi
1409 Quincy Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,800	$1.80	23d	1	0.67mi
6112 7th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,350	$1.10	46d	1	0.68mi
6112 7th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,375	$1.12	23d	1	0.68mi
5863 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,325	$1.19	23d	1	0.75mi
310 Homestead Ave Unit 4 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1783	$1,795	$1.01	16d	1	0.76mi
310 Homestead Ave Unit 17 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1571	$1,595	$1.02	46d	1	0.77mi
310 Homestead Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1783	$1,995	$1.12	46d	1	0.77mi
310 Homestead Ave Unit 12 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1571	$1,595	$1.02	16d	1	0.77mi
5846 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,145	$0.99	23d	1	0.81mi
5839 7th St Unit D Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,050	$0.91	46d	1	0.82mi
5833 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,125	$0.97	23d	1	0.85mi
5834 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,125	$0.94	23d	1	0.85mi
221 Grover Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,295	$1.09	16d	1	0.90mi
7105 14th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,950	$1.22	23d	1	0.95mi
6927 20th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$1,599	$0.99	23d	1	1.02mi
6040 24th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1699	$1,600	$0.94	46d	1	1.05mi
6040 24th St Unit 17 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1700	$1,729	$1.02	46d	1	1.06mi
6040 24th St Unit 33 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1795	$1,600	$0.89	23d	1	1.06mi
6040 24th St Unit 17 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,729	$1.02	23d	1	1.06mi
204 Genoa Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	16d	1	1.08mi
6040 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1795	$1,799	$1.00	23d	1	1.09mi
6040 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1795	$1,650	$0.92	46d	1	1.09mi
6040 24th St Unit 16 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1600	$1,699	$1.06	16d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $179,000
3. 2026-04-19
   status Active
4. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-24
   listed $189,000 Active
6. 2009-07-16
   soldstatus
7. 1993-06-01
   soldstatus
8. 1992-11-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,115 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,115 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$4,115
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$3,585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$860
• After-tax cash flow: $254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $179,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $189,000 LARMLS
• 2009-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,115 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.