9804 Hamlet Ln S · Cottage Grove, MN 55016

$280,000

2 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,947 sqft · Townhouse public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1998 2,178 sqft lot $310/mo HOA · 15% of rent ↓ 58% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very clean & sharp 3BR end unit townhome, patio drs onto 8x12 deck, walking trails. New AC, Furnace, kitchen appls & wash/dryer! Newer carpet & decor, Bsmt fin w/3rd BR 3/4 bath & storage. Upper level has 2 bath & jacuzzi tub, W/I closet, no smokers

Key facts

• $310 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1998

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Free and clear mortgage status indicated
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Personal Touch); Monthly association fee of $310; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, and snow removal; In-ground sprinkler system listed as association amenity

Exterior

• Parking: Tuck-under garage with garage door opener; Asphalt and concrete driveway; 2-car garage (17 x 18)
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers (100 amp)
• Home design: Attached residential property; Two levels; Main entry level plus upper and lower levels
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Deck; Stone and vinyl exterior; No fencing; In-ground sprinkler system (community/association amenity); Paved city streets and public maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with window; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one on upper level, one on lower level, one on upper level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath (primary); 2 three-quarter baths (including upper level 3/4 bath and basement 3/4 bath); 1 half bath on main floor; Private primary bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceiling; Natural woodwork; Local area network; Security system; Walk-in closet; Living/Dining room; Finished basement with egress window(s); Drain-tiled basement and sump pump; Jetted tub; Separate tub and shower
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry room with washer hookup; Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup; Water softener (owned); Electronic air filter

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-529 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (33.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#132 in MN, #2,948 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 401 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; list at $280k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,624 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.09%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-77,241
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-103,136
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55016

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,138/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$310
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,730

Max offer price $186,624

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $310 · $3,720/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $280,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $280,000 Contingent - Inspection 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $280,000 Contingent - Inspection 5 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $280,000 Contingent - Inspection 4 DOM
5. 2026-05-29
   historical Contingent - Inspection
6. 2026-05-28
   listed $280,000 Active
7. 2026-05-27
   historical $280,000
8. 2026-05-26
   historical
9. 2026-04-30
   listed $280,000
10. 2015-07-01
    soldstatus $164,500 Sold 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Very clean & sharp 3BR end unit townhome, patio drs onto 8x12 deck, walking trails. New AC, Furnace, kitchen appls & wash/dryer! Newer carpet & decor, Bsmt fin w/3rd BR 3/4 bath & storage. Upper level has 2 bath & jacuzzi tub, W/I closet, no smokers

11. 2015-07-01
    soldstatus $164,500

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Very clean & sharp 3BR end unit townhome, patio drs onto 8x12 deck, walking trails. New AC, Furnace, kitchen appls & wash/dryer! Newer carpet & decor, Bsmt fin w/3rd BR 3/4 bath & storage. Upper level has 2 bath & jacuzzi tub, W/I closet, no smokers

12. 2015-06-03
    historical Contingent - Inspection 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Very clean & sharp 3BR end unit townhome, patio drs onto 8x12 deck, walking trails. New AC, Furnace, kitchen appls & wash/dryer! Newer carpet & decor, Bsmt fin w/3rd BR 3/4 bath & storage. Upper level has 2 bath & jacuzzi tub, W/I closet, no smokers

13. 2015-05-29
    listed $172,800 Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Very clean & sharp 3BR end unit townhome, patio drs onto 8x12 deck, walking trails. New AC, Furnace, kitchen appls & wash/dryer! Newer carpet & decor, Bsmt fin w/3rd BR 3/4 bath & storage. Upper level has 2 bath & jacuzzi tub, W/I closet, no smokers

14. 2004-11-10
    soldstatus $185,000
15. 2003-06-19
    soldstatus $177,900
16. 2001-01-12
    soldstatus $136,400
17. 1998-06-22
    soldstatus $114,655
18. 1997-01-16
    soldstatus $667,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,138 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,138 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 50% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$3,138
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − HOA: −$3,720
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$11,316
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,716
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Washington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2733810
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $88,285
• Composite: 51.8/100
• National rank: #1670
• State rank: #40 of 301 in MN

Livability — Cottage Grove

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #2948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottage Grove, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 40,695
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 40,695
• Household income: $120,715
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 323.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.55%
• Current HPI: 241.1084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.78%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-58.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-28 Listed $280,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-27 Coming Soon $280,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $280,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $164,500 Public Records
• 2015-07-01 Sold (MLS) $164,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-03 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-29 Listed $172,800 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $177,900 Public Records
• 2001-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $136,400 Public Records
• 1998-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $114,655 Public Records
• 1997-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $667,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,138 · -8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.