170 Windtree Ln · Winter Garden, FL 34787

$204,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 918 sqft · Condo · 36 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own in the heart of Winter Garden! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo features a fully renovated kitchen, updated flooring throughout with NO carpet, and a functional open layout perfect for comfortable living or investment purposes. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, major roads, and just minutes from Winter Garden Village and Winter Garden Plaza. Whether you are looking for a primary residence or an income-producing property, this is an excellent opportunity at a great price. Community amenities include pool and recreational areas. Don’t miss out!

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Updated flooring
• Pool

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED FLOORING
• FUNCTIONAL OPEN LAYOUT
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• RECREATIONAL AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association dues required; Association covers structure and grounds maintenance; Community clubhouse; Community pool; Community mailbox; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Condominium; Single-story unit; East-facing
• Construction: Concrete construction; Other roof type; Slab foundation; Built as part of a multi-unit building (building number 170)
• Exterior features: Balcony; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in kitchen area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.9% in Winter Garden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#41 in FL, #804 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William S Maxey Elementary (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 468 students, 62% FRL); Lakeview Middle (math 49% / reading 49%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 843 students, 48% FRL); West Orange High (math 30% / reading 60%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 2,816 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1605 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,124 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.13%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-51,974
• Equity at exit: $30,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-77,825
• Equity at exit: $17,716

Cash invested: $57,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34787

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1605
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,811 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,074/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$260
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,122

Max offer price $169,428

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-104	-5% $-174	+0% $-245	+5% $-316	+10% $-387
Rent	-10% $-388	-5% $-317	+0% $-245	+5% $-174	+10% $-102
Rate	-1.0pp $-142	-0.5pp $-193	base $-245	+0.5pp $-298	+1.0pp $-352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,225
• Closing costs: $6,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
165 Windtree Ln Unit U Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,750	$1.91	25d	1	0.01mi
165 Windtree Ln Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	25d	1	0.03mi
119 Windtree Ln Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	958	$1,695	$1.77	25d	1	0.05mi
126 Windtree Ln Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	23d	1	0.07mi
126 Windtree Ln Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	19d	1	0.07mi
88 Windtree Ln Unit K Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,450	$1.58	4d	1	0.08mi
80 Windtree Ln Unit 203 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,650	$1.80	25d	1	0.14mi
36 Windtree Ln Unit 202 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,520	$1.66	0d	1	0.19mi
1240 Winter Garden Vineland Rd Winter Garden, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,853	$2.12	4d	23	0.66mi
417 Southern Pecan Cir #207 Winter Garden, FL	1.0	1.0	942	$1,750	$1.86	0d	1	0.70mi
1205 S Park Ave Winter Garden, FL	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,850	$1.65	4d	1	0.79mi
314 Douglas Way Unit 900 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$1,570	$1.69	25d	1	0.88mi
224 W Cypress St Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	19d	1	0.92mi
314 S Boyd St Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$2,050	$1.94	4d	1	1.05mi
11 E Smith St Winter Garden, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	948	$2,900	$3.06	9d	3	1.14mi
731 Klondike St Winter Garden, FL	3.0	1.0	958	$1,800	$1.88	23d	1	1.22mi
109 S Boyd St Unit 205 Winter Garden, FL	1.0	1.0	830	$1,895	$2.28	5d	1	1.23mi
508 Varsity St Winter Garden, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,695	$2.17	25d	1	1.29mi
1309 Cardinal Ln Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.0	984	$1,800	$1.83	9d	1	1.34mi
1000 Dolphin Dr Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.0	984	$2,100	$2.13	25d	1	1.40mi
584 W Bay St Winter Garden, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	740	$2,225	$3.00	4d	8	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $204,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $204,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $204,900 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $204,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $204,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $204,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,900 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,900 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,900 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    listed $204,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,478
• − Property taxes: −$3,074
• − Insurance: −$1,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,739
• − Management: −$1,739
• − HOA: −$3,120
• − Depreciation: −$5,961
• Taxable loss: −$6,399
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,536
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and updated townhouse is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for both resale and rental purposes.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both New flooring in the bathrooms — Replacing outdated flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms
• Both New kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both New flooring in the bathrooms — Replacing outdated flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Garden

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Garden, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 101,441
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 101,441
• Household income: $120,365
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2682.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 21% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 4% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.49%
• Current HPI: 296.8866
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $204,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid