4707 Black Lake Belmore Rd SW #31 · Tumwater, WA 98512

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $141k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to Timberlane Mobile Estates, a desirable 55+ community on beautiful Black Lake offering comfort, convenience, and low-maintenance living. This beautifully updated home features an open-concept floor plan with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, soft-close cabinetry, subway tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, farmhouse sink, deep pantry, breakfast bar, and dedicated dining space. Enjoy year-round comfort with an energy-efficient heat pump providing both heating and air conditioning, along with a smart thermostat for added convenience. Recent improvements include a brand-new roof in 2026 with warranty, new 8' x 40' awning, Trex deck, vinyl windows, and an oversized

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1976
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated living area 924 square feet; View present
• Financial info: Land lease amount: $808; Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA
• HOA & community: Located in Timberlane Mobile Estates (senior community); Land lease; Park amenities: common area, community waterfront, recreational area; Senior community with senior exemption

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Electric water heater; Community water (Timberlane Mobile Estates); Community septic; Power: PSE; Cable: Xfinity; Internet: Xfinity
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home (Timberlane Lamplighter); One level; Very good condition; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Mobile home remains; Skirted with metal
• Construction: Metal/vinyl construction; Roof: see remarks
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl exterior; Paved lot; On waterfront (lake) with no bank; Community waterfront / private beach access; Patio/porch/deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen with eating space; Dining room adjacent
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with bathtub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Forced air heating; Forced air cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Awnings; Ceiling fan(s); Double pane windows; Drapes; Landscaped; Patio/porch/deck; Master closet houses water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.37%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,372
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4707 Black Lake Belmore Rd SW #36	0.04mi	1/1.0 (-1)	880 (-5%)	12mo	$137,000	$156	75
4707 Black Lake Belmore Rd SW #37	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+9%)	24mo	$154,000	$153	60
4045 49th Ave SW #12	0.22mi	2/1.0	840 (-9%)	24mo	$124,500	$148	55
4045 49th Ave SW #36	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+13%)	22mo	$149,500	$144	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,976
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $15,510
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98512

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $767/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,335

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $767 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,715 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$948/yr (+$79/mo · 123.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$767
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,278
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$307
• After-tax cash flow: $3,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tumwater School District
• NCES district ID: 5309100
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,209
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #2477
• State rank: #37 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tumwater

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #700

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 46,937
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,864
• Household income: $101,530
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.18%
• Current HPI: 347.121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $175,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $767 · +15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.