1351 Pepper Dr #35 · Bostonia, CA 92021

$215,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Built 1972 9.52 ac lot Est $234k · 8% under $631/mo HOA · 23% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,416 sq ft residence nestled in a small, well-maintained, gated, resident-owned senior community. Enjoy some of the lowest space rent around at just $630.33 per month. Inside, you’ll find beautiful natural wood cabinetry and floors, a spacious kitchen, and multiple living areas including a living room, dining room, and family room—perfect for both everyday comfort and entertaining. Ceiling fans in every room and a generously sized primary bedroom add to the home’s appeal. Paid solar panels provide energy efficiency and long-term savings. Step outside to enjoy a cozy brick side yard, ideal for relaxing or hosting guests. Add

Key facts

• Paid solar panels
• Brick side yard
• Refreshing pool

Tags

• NATURAL WOOD CABINETRY
• PAID SOLAR PANELS
• BRICK SIDE YARD
• STORAGE SHED
• LARGE CARPORT
• REFRESHING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease applies with amount $631
• HOA & community: Part of Royal View Gardens association; Monthly association fee of $631; Senior community; Manager approval required for tenancy; Pets allowed with size and number limits; Community features include a dog park

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 carport spaces; Located in Royal View Gardens park
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story mobile/home model Shelby; Mobile home remains; Entry level: 1; Facing/position: corner placement in the park
• Construction: Composition roof; Single-story
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Community pool; Block wall and partial fencing; Corner lot; Level with street; 1 shed; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms are on the first level
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (central furnace); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: All bedrooms on main level; One-level entry; Entry from carport house door; Covered patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Gas dryer hookup; Laundry in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 6.0% in Bostonia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#383 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: El Cajon Valley High (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #656 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 1,652 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 17% district-wide (74 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Grossmont Union High average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.61%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1351 Pepper Dr Spc 41	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-1%)	8mo	$235,000	$168	91
1315 Pepper Dr #67	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+2%)	3mo	$145,000	$101	87
1120 Pepper Dr #17	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+2%)	4mo	$125,000	$87	67
1315 Pepper Dr #72	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,220 (-14%)	10mo	$194,000	$159	65
8128 Royal Park Ln	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-3%)	12mo	$150,000	$110	63
1120 Pepper Dr #78	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-3%)	10mo	$300,000	$219	56
12044 Royal Rd #120	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,325 (-6%)	14mo	$219,000	$165	55
1120 Pepper Dr #79	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-5%)	6mo	$310,000	$231	55
12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd Spc 25	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,275 (-10%)	1mo	$235,000	$184	52
1120 Pepper Dr #121	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,534 (+8%)	14mo	$240,000	$156	48
12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd Spc 45	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-12%)	14mo	$183,000	$147	33
12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd #17	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-12%)	14mo	$275,000	$220	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-30,931
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-41,449
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,711 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,349/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$631
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,482

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8031 Winter Gardens Blvd El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1124	$2,995	$2.66	1d	1	0.28mi
1221 Oro St El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$2,575	$2.52	1d	1	0.67mi
8424 Pueblo Rd Unit 8424 Lakeside, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,750	$2.75	1d	1	0.70mi
1365 Broadway El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$3,478	$3.48	1d	1	0.81mi
1314 5 D Dr Unit 1318 El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.0	960	$2,600	$2.71	23d	1	0.92mi
1696 Buckeye Dr El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.0	942	$2,900	$3.08	1d	1	0.96mi
816 Oro St El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.0	1235	$3,400	$2.75	2d	1	1.04mi
2000 E Main St El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5–2.5	1165	$3,300	$2.83	1d	1	1.04mi
1219 Denver Ln Unit 1465013P El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1194	$8,558	$7.17	21d	1	1.09mi
1171 Marline Ave Unit 1171-A El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5	1141	$3,100	$2.72	1d	1	1.11mi
1343 Oakdale Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$2,195	$2.74	1d	1	1.18mi
1377 Oakdale Ave Unit 03 El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,425	$2.69	1d	1	1.18mi
500 Grape St El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	1d	1	1.28mi
989 Peach Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	845	$2,150	$2.54	1d	11	1.33mi
360 E Bradley Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1116	$2,934	$2.63	1d	3	1.38mi
422 Shady Ln El Cajon, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,304	$2.56	1d	18	1.39mi
798 McClure St Unit 14 El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.0	916	$2,295	$2.51	1d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $631 · $7,572/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $215,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $236,999 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $236,999 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $236,999 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $236,999 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $236,999 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $236,999 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $236,999 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $236,999 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $236,999 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $236,999 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $236,999 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $236,999 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $236,999 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $236,999
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $249,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,349 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,634 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$285/yr (+$24/mo · 21.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,349
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,602
• − Management: −$2,602
• − HOA: −$7,572
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$233
• After-tax cash flow: $2,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bostonia

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #383
• US rank: #13065

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bostonia, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $236,999 CRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $249,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,349 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.