9121 Optimist Way · Ellenton, FL 34221

$299,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,489 sqft · Land · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 4,356 sqft lot $325/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. * * * * SPECIAL FINANCING AVAILABLE FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY FROM PREFERRED LENDER. RESTRICTIONS APPLY, FOR QUALIFIED BUYERS, SUBJECT TO APPLICABLE TERMS AND CONDITIONS. SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE * * * * Discover the Opal at Southpointe This elegant attached villa offers 1,489 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, featuring three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage. Step inside to find an additional bedroom. Beyond that, the chef-inspired kitchen awaits, complete with a pantry and convenient laundry room nearby. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the dining area and great room, creating an ideal space for entertaini

Key facts

• Luxurious bath
• Walk in closet
• Walk in shower

Tags

• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR PATIO
• WALK IN CLOSET
• LUXURIOUS BATH
• WALK IN SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-481 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,400 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.87%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-86,123
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.68×
• Total profit: $-140,966
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,427 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$325
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-481

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,036

Max offer price $230,400

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9117 Optimist Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1489	$2,200	$1.48	23d	1	0.01mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	21d	1	0.44mi
4014 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,516	$1.62	21d	1	0.50mi
9204 34th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	11d	1	0.66mi
5020 Cedar Leaf Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,491	$2.85	1d	21	0.70mi
9650 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,342	$2.23	23d	99	0.71mi
5511 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	23d	1	1.09mi
5871 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,185	$1.46	21d	1	1.16mi
5331 Rushmere Ct Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1582	$2,600	$1.64	23d	1	1.28mi
11019 Bud Rhoden Rd Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,589	$1.59	3d	1	1.29mi
8132 Tea Olive Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,500	$1.47	23d	1	1.43mi
6210 Terra Lago Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,405	$2.37	3d	50	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $325 · $3,900/yr
• Likely covers: cable

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $299,999 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,999 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   pricestatus $299,999 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-24
   price $279,999
6. 2026-02-10
   listed $292,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,330
• − Management: −$2,330
• − HOA: −$3,900
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$10,969
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,633
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $279,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Listed $292,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid