845 Anvil Way · Toms River, NJ 08755

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured · 45 Days on market

Built 1976 $103/sqft · 47% below area Est $150k · 47% under $641/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Homestead Run! A 55+ community with a salt water pool, bingo, line dancing, holiday parties, cards, billiards, musical shows and charity auctions. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath ''New Yorker'' model is 12x65 and is remodeled throughout with new flooring, brand new appliances, updated windows, molding, ceiling fans and a new bathroom with a walk in shower, new vanity and modern lighting. The plumbing and electrical have been updated too! Move right in and unpack. A large storage shed out back for storage. Front porch is inviting and ready for company.....Close to Garden State Parkway, Philadelphia, NYC, shopping, buses and trains.

Key facts

• Brand new appliances
• New bathroom
• Updated windows

Tags

• REMODELED THROUGHOUT
• NEW FLOORING
• BRAND NEW APPLIANCES
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• NEW BATHROOM
• WALK IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $793 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $80k implies a 493% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.06%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,000
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -46.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $38,043
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.47×
• Total profit: $100,122
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$641
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $793

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,595

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2144 Lakewood Rd Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	750	$2,150	$2.87	7d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $641 · $7,692/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricpool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $80,000 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $80,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $80,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $80,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $80,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $80,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-04-21
   listed $80,000 Active 645-char remark

   Show marketing remark (645 chars)

   Welcome to Homestead Run! A 55+ community with a salt water pool, bingo, line dancing, holiday parties, cards, billiards, musical shows and charity auctions. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath ''New Yorker'' model is 12x65 and is remodeled throughout with new flooring, brand new appliances, updated windows, molding, ceiling fans and a new bathroom with a walk in shower, new vanity and modern lighting. The plumbing and electrical have been updated too! Move right in and unpack. A large storage shed out back for storage. Front porch is inviting and ready for company.....Close to Garden State Parkway, Philadelphia, NYC, shopping, buses and trains.

8. 2011-08-05
   soldstatus $13,500 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   New price makes this a real steal! At this price you can use as a summer getaway at the Jersey Shore or your year round home! This 2 bdrm, 1 bath w/frnt porch home features C/A, gas heat,new neutral w/w carpet & kitchen floor,newer windows,appliances, dble sink & bay window. MBR has 3 closets. Ceiling fans in lvgrm/dngrm combo & MBR. Large shed in back. One time admin fee of $375 to Assoc. Ready for you to move in & enjoy outdoor pool, clubhse & many activities in this active Adult Community.

9. 2010-11-11
   listed $17,500 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   New price makes this a real steal! At this price you can use as a summer getaway at the Jersey Shore or your year round home! This 2 bdrm, 1 bath w/frnt porch home features C/A, gas heat,new neutral w/w carpet & kitchen floor,newer windows,appliances, dble sink & bay window. MBR has 3 closets. Ceiling fans in lvgrm/dngrm combo & MBR. Large shed in back. One time admin fee of $375 to Assoc. Ready for you to move in & enjoy outdoor pool, clubhse & many activities in this active Adult Community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − HOA: −$7,692
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $9,307
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,234
• After-tax cash flow: $7,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+357.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $80,000 MOMLS
• 2011-08-05 Sold (MLS) $13,500 MOMLS
• 2010-11-11 Listed $17,500 MOMLS