4845 Rosarian Dr · Cumming, GA 30040

$549,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,160 sqft · Other · 63 Days on market

Built 2026 10,454 sqft lot $174/sqft · 16% below area Est $654k · 16% under $150/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a starting base price listing of the Continental floorplan with no additional structural options or modifications. The builder can build this home on homesite 9 with $20,000 design studio credit for a limited time only. Nestled in desirable North Forsyth County, with bustling retail centers on one end and tranquil pastures on the other, Rose Creek homeowners enjoy the best of both worlds. Encompassing a series of cul-de-sacs linked by sidewalk-lined streets, this enclave of gorgeous, two-story, brick-front homes fosters an environment where it's easy for neighbors to connect and form life-long friendships.

Key facts

• Cul-de-sacs
• North forsyth county
• Brick-front homes

Tags

• NORTH FORSYTH COUNTY
• BUSTLING RETAIL CENTERS
• TRANQUIL PASTURES
• CUL-DE-SACS
• SIDEWALK-LINED STREETS
• BRICK-FRONT HOMES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-724 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $422k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (38.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $337k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.8% in Cumming — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#29 in GA, #3,797 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Forsyth County (suburban): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 174 in GA (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Coal Mountain Elementary School (math 61% / reading 51%, grade C+, #165 of 1,228 statewide, top 14%, 742 students, 20% FRL); North Forsyth Middle School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #80 of 470 statewide, top 17%, 1,191 students, 20% FRL); North Forsyth High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 2,065 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Forsyth County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 904 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,525 units permitted in Forsyth County in 2024 (810 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Forsyth County population projected at +71% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($517k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $336,988 (38.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.64%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $654,448
• List price: $549,990
• Delta: -15.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-139,941
• Equity at exit: $82,005

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-200,083
• Equity at exit: $47,553

Cash invested: $153,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30040

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 904
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,370 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,471/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$708
• Net cashflow: $-724

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,286

Max offer price $422,132

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-412	-5% $-568	+0% $-724	+5% $-879	+10% $-1,035
Rent	-10% $-990	-5% $-857	+0% $-724	+5% $-591	+10% $-458
Rate	-1.0pp $-447	-0.5pp $-584	base $-724	+0.5pp $-866	+1.0pp $-1,011

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,498
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5510 Bower Pl Cumming, GA	5.0	4.0	3358	$3,200	$0.95	22d	1	1.02mi
5930 Neisler Rd Cumming, GA	5.0	3.0	2896	$2,900	$1.00	26d	1	1.22mi
6510 Wallace Farms Dr Cumming, GA	4.0	3.0	2996	$3,350	$1.12	26d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on marketlisting id $549,990 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $549,990 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $549,990 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $549,990 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   remarks 622-char remark
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $549,990 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $549,990 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $549,990 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $549,990 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $549,990 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $549,990 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $549,990 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-04-08
    listed $549,990 New 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    This is a starting base price listing of the Continental floorplan with no additional structural options or modifications. The builder can build this home on homesite 9 with $20,000 design studio credit for a limited time only. Nestled in desirable North Forsyth County, with bustling retail centers on one end and tranquil pastures on the other, Rose Creek homeowners enjoy the best of both worlds. Encompassing a series of cul-de-sacs linked by sidewalk-lined streets, this enclave of gorgeous, two-story, brick-front homes fosters an environment where it's easy for neighbors to connect and form life-long friendships.

14. 2026-04-08
    listed $549,990 Active 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    This is a starting base price listing of the Continental floorplan with no additional structural options or modifications. The builder can build this home on homesite 9 with $20,000 design studio credit for a limited time only. Nestled in desirable North Forsyth County, with bustling retail centers on one end and tranquil pastures on the other, Rose Creek homeowners enjoy the best of both worlds. Encompassing a series of cul-de-sacs linked by sidewalk-lined streets, this enclave of gorgeous, two-story, brick-front homes fosters an environment where it's easy for neighbors to connect and form life-long friendships.

15. 2026-03-16
    historical
16. 2026-03-14
    historical
17. 2025-11-12
    listed $549,990 New
18. 2025-11-12
    listed $549,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,471 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,060 · $422/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,589/yr (+$299/mo · 243.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,808
• − Property taxes: −$1,471
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,235
• − Management: −$3,235
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$18,861
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,527
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forsyth County
• NCES district ID: 1302220
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,763
• Composite: 56.54/100
• National rank: #1151
• State rank: #5 of 174 in GA

Livability — Cumming

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #3797

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Forsyth County · 198,629 people
• City population: 198,629
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 82,532
• Household income: $137,211
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1056.0

Population outlook (Forsyth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 294,519 people
• By 2030: 336,546 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 421,220 · +43.0%
• By 2050: 502,754 · +70.7%
• By 2075: 683,179 · +132.0%
• By 2100: 792,174 · +169.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Forsyth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 32.9% · R 66.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +24.9pp toward D · 2008: -58.0pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+33.2 2016: R+47.7 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+58.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.76%
• Current HPI: 277.8697
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $549,990 FMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $549,990 GAMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $549,990 FMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $549,990 GAMLS