17 Brown St · Riverside, NY 11901

$399,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1991 9,583 sqft lot Est $441k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy 3Bd Ranch Features Hardwoof floors 3 year young boiler, 10-15 Year old roof, full Basement, Detached 1 Car Garage, Low Taxes, Fenced Property, Close to school & Park

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1991

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $349k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $349k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,145 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Phillips Avenue School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 578 students, 50% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $400k implies a 967% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $349,265 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.45%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $441,144
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43 Goodridge Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0	770 (-3%)	14mo	$335,000	$435	79
440 Flanders Rd	0.58mi	2/1.0	754 (-5%)	18mo	$420,000	$557	50
257 Flanders Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	700 (-12%)	0mo	$460,000	$657	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-44,442
• Equity at exit: $59,640

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-12,878
• Equity at exit: $34,584

Cash invested: $111,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,073/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$733
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,085

Max offer price $399,990

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,998
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
221 E Main St Unit 502 Riverhead, NY	1.0	1.0	624	$1,794	$2.88	43d	1	0.87mi
221 E Main St Unit 227 Riverhead, NY	1.0	1.0	680	$2,154	$3.17	43d	1	0.87mi
331 E Main St Unit 404 Riverhead, NY	1.0	1.0	712	$3,750	$5.27	43d	1	0.87mi
331 E Main St Unit 204 Riverhead, NY	2.0	1.0	867	$3,350	$3.86	43d	1	0.87mi
331 E Main St Unit 405 Riverhead, NY	2.0	1.0	777	$4,300	$5.53	43d	1	0.87mi
331 E Main St Riverhead, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	822	$4,300	$5.23	1d	3	0.87mi
67 Reeves Bay Trl Unit 1546122P Riverhead, NY	1.0	1.0	990	$5,161	$5.21	13d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   price $399,990
3. 2026-04-27
   listed $399,940 Active
4. 2000-01-13
   soldstatus $37,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,073 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,416 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,344/yr (+$195/mo · 113.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$2,073
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,353
• − Management: −$3,353
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$698
• After-tax cash flow: $4,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1145
• US rank: #23895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment D- Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverside, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+966.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $399,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $399,940 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,073 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.