216 Flagstone Dr · Liberty, TX 77575

$204,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Entering the home from the covered porch, you step into a bright foyer that leads to two bedrooms sharing a full bath. Continuing down the hallway, you'll find a third bedroom and a laundry room with convenient access to the two-car garage. The layout opens up into a connected kitchen, family room, and dining area, creating a welcoming central living space. A covered patio extends off the family room, perfect for outdoor relaxation. Just beyond the kitchen and dining area, the private primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 31 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Starlight Homes
• HOA & community: WDHOA Association Management; Annual association fee of $470

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2026; Living area approximately 1,900
• Construction: Cement siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included

🏗️ New construction. The $204,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $322,590.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-845 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 4.6% in Liberty — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#489 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #354 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hardin H S (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 394 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hardin ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,150 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.23%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,590
• List price: $204,990
• Delta: -36.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-106,051
• Equity at exit: $48,099

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-161,452
• Equity at exit: $27,892

Cash invested: $90,325 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77575

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,802 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,692
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$403 /mo · $4,839/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-845

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,871

Max offer price $200,294

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,647
• Closing costs: $9,678
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,990 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $204,990 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,990 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,990 Active 29 DOM

   Show marketing remark (564 chars)

   Entering the home from the covered porch, you step into a bright foyer that leads to two bedrooms sharing a full bath. Continuing down the hallway, you'll find a third bedroom and a laundry room with convenient access to the two-car garage. The layout opens up into a connected kitchen, family room, and dining area, creating a welcoming central living space. A covered patio extends off the family room, perfect for outdoor relaxation. Just beyond the kitchen and dining area, the private primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

5. 2026-06-16
   price $214,990 Active 28 DOM

   Show marketing remark (564 chars)

   Entering the home from the covered porch, you step into a bright foyer that leads to two bedrooms sharing a full bath. Continuing down the hallway, you'll find a third bedroom and a laundry room with convenient access to the two-car garage. The layout opens up into a connected kitchen, family room, and dining area, creating a welcoming central living space. A covered patio extends off the family room, perfect for outdoor relaxation. Just beyond the kitchen and dining area, the private primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,990 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,990 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $234,990 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,990 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $238,990 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $238,990 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,990 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,990 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,990 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,990 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $238,990 721-char remark
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $250,990 Active 721-char remark
18. 2026-05-12
    historical $250,990 721-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,070
• − Property taxes: −$4,839
• − Insurance: −$1,613
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,729
• − Management: −$1,729
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$9,384
• Taxable loss: −$16,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,892
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, interior, HVAC, and landscaping, significantly impacting its value and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible photos.
• Major exterior siding — No visible photos.
• Major interior walls and paint — No visible photos.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible photos.
• Major landscaping — No visible photos.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Critical to the home's structural integrity and safety.
• Both exterior siding and paint — Improves curb appeal and home value.
• Both HVAC/mechanicals — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's aesthetic and marketability.
• Both interior walls and paint — Updates the home's interior and enhances its marketability.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible photos.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · No visible photos.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls and paint · No visible photos.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible photos.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · No visible photos.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — Critical to the home's structural integrity and safety. ↑
• Both exterior siding and paint — Improves curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanicals — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's aesthetic and marketability. ↑
• Both interior walls and paint — Updates the home's interior and enhances its marketability. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822380
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,099
• Composite: 35.54/100
• National rank: #4907
• State rank: #354 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #489
• US rank: #9688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty, TX
• City population: 16,617
• Population (ZIP): 16,617

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.17%
• Current HPI: 204.9372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $204,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $214,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $214,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listed $238,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $238,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $250,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Coming Soon $250,990 HARMLS