4217 Athens Ave · Elfers, FL 34652

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1976 4,400 sqft lot Est $84k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED TO SELL. NEEDS WORK. SOLD AS IS. NEWER KITCHEN AND BATH. ELECTRICAL WORK NEEDED, WOOD AND DRYWALL REPAIR NEEDED. GREAT FLOORPLAN. EXTRA LARGE BEDROOMS, SHED, CARPORT, FENCED,

Key facts

• Community events
• Local shopping
• Local dining

Tags

• SPACIOUS ENCLOSED CABANA
• LOCAL DINING
• LOCAL SHOPPING
• WATERFRONT ACTIVITIES
• COMMUNITY EVENTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1976
• Exterior features: Located in the Sunshine Park subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $732 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 4.7% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 635 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (48%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $65k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.25%
• DSCR: 3.15
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,520
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5609 Sunshine Park Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	720 (0%)	2mo	$98,000	$136	78
5824 Ashen Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	816 (+13%)	7mo	$95,000	$116	68
5713 Sunshine Park Dr	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	672 (-7%)	4mo	$69,000	$103	68
4100 Cardoon Dr	0.46mi	2/1.5 (-1)	672 (-7%)	21mo	$60,000	$89	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $32,881
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $76,114
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34652

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 635
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,419 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $252/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $732

Break-even live

Break-even rent $492

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5844 Sunshine Park Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	672	$1,100	$1.64	2d	1	0.13mi
4540 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	24d	1	0.71mi
4551 Audrey Ln NEW PRT RCHY, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	22d	1	0.71mi
4518 Audrey Ln Unit 4551 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	22d	1	0.72mi
4529 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	22d	1	0.74mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	3d	1	1.04mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	15d	1	1.04mi
5543 Gulf Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,550	$2.08	16d	1	1.35mi
4944 Elkner St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	722	$1,350	$1.87	22d	1	1.46mi
4948 Getner St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	722	$1,350	$1.87	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $65,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $65,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-05-12
   listed $125,000 Active
5. 2015-09-09
   historical 181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   PRICED TO SELL. NEEDS WORK. SOLD AS IS. NEWER KITCHEN AND BATH. ELECTRICAL WORK NEEDED, WOOD AND DRYWALL REPAIR NEEDED. GREAT FLOORPLAN. EXTRA LARGE BEDROOMS, SHED, CARPORT, FENCED,

6. 2015-09-04
   soldstatus $25,000 Sold 181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   PRICED TO SELL. NEEDS WORK. SOLD AS IS. NEWER KITCHEN AND BATH. ELECTRICAL WORK NEEDED, WOOD AND DRYWALL REPAIR NEEDED. GREAT FLOORPLAN. EXTRA LARGE BEDROOMS, SHED, CARPORT, FENCED,

7. 2015-08-28
   status Pending 181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   PRICED TO SELL. NEEDS WORK. SOLD AS IS. NEWER KITCHEN AND BATH. ELECTRICAL WORK NEEDED, WOOD AND DRYWALL REPAIR NEEDED. GREAT FLOORPLAN. EXTRA LARGE BEDROOMS, SHED, CARPORT, FENCED,

8. 2015-08-26
   listed $25,000 Active 181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   PRICED TO SELL. NEEDS WORK. SOLD AS IS. NEWER KITCHEN AND BATH. ELECTRICAL WORK NEEDED, WOOD AND DRYWALL REPAIR NEEDED. GREAT FLOORPLAN. EXTRA LARGE BEDROOMS, SHED, CARPORT, FENCED,

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $252 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $540 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: +$288/yr (+$24/mo · 114.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$252
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,362
• − Management: −$1,362
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $8,192
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,966
• After-tax cash flow: $6,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,444
• Household income: $56,931
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 310.8347
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.72%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com
• 2015-09-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-04 Sold (MLS) $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-26 Listed $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $252 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.