1307 Neptune Rd · Dallas, TX 75216

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1952 7,928 sqft lot $161/sqft · 19% below area Est $196k · 29% under ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this less than $200k single-family home with a huge back yard for your family and friend's reunion. AC unit and furnace replaced around 07-2025 and water heater 03-2025. Don't lose this opportunity.

Key facts

• Attached apartment
• Huge back yard
• Backyard apartment

Tags

• HUGE BACK YARD
• ADDITIONAL APARTMENTS
• ATTACHED APARTMENT
• BACKYARD APARTMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,726/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 2465% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.39%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,819
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -28.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1318 Waweenoc Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0	789 (-10%)	8mo	$199,900	$253	71
3512 S Ewing Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0	867 (-1%)	1mo	$125,000	$144	65
1823 Atlas Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0	868 (-0%)	5mo	$90,000	$104	64
1202 Waweenoc Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+10%)	11mo	$249,900	$260	63
3603 Maryland Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0	861 (-1%)	12mo	$189,000	$220	54
4516 Idaho Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	967 (+11%)	10mo	$159,000	$164	53
1519 Fordham Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	847 (-3%)	22mo	$199,900	$236	49
4113 Idaho Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0	980 (+12%)	21mo	$159,000	$162	45
1326 Presidio Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+6%)	19mo	$237,000	$256	31
1442 Hudspeth Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	758 (-13%)	22mo	$190,000	$251	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,026
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $29,113
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75216

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,565/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,379

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1214 Adelaide Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$2,350	$2.26	7d	1	0.42mi
1334 Marfa Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,475	$1.34	44d	1	0.57mi
3608 S Marsalis Ave Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	907	$1,400	$1.54	44d	1	0.72mi
1618 Marfa Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	44d	1	0.76mi
4417 S Lancaster Rd Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,595	$1.82	2d	1	0.77mi
4934 Kildare Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,595	$1.43	24d	1	0.87mi
1435 Whispering Trl Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	1047	$1,660	$1.59	7d	1	1.07mi
1754 E Red Bird Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	1.5	1115	$1,675	$1.50	7d	1	1.37mi
3702 Conway St Dallas, TX	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1033	$1,445	$1.40	1d	5	1.45mi
3702 Conway St Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	658	$1,295	$1.97	44d	3	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-12-16
   price $140,000 213-char remark

   Show marketing remark (213 chars)

   Take a look at this less than $200k single-family home with a huge back yard for your family and friend's reunion. AC unit and furnace replaced around 07-2025 and water heater 03-2025. Don't lose this opportunity.

2. 2025-12-07
   price $165,000 213-char remark

   Show marketing remark (213 chars)

   Take a look at this less than $200k single-family home with a huge back yard for your family and friend's reunion. AC unit and furnace replaced around 07-2025 and water heater 03-2025. Don't lose this opportunity.

3. 2025-11-10
   price $175,000 213-char remark

   Show marketing remark (213 chars)

   Take a look at this less than $200k single-family home with a huge back yard for your family and friend's reunion. AC unit and furnace replaced around 07-2025 and water heater 03-2025. Don't lose this opportunity.

4. 2025-11-03
   price $186,000 213-char remark

   Show marketing remark (213 chars)

   Take a look at this less than $200k single-family home with a huge back yard for your family and friend's reunion. AC unit and furnace replaced around 07-2025 and water heater 03-2025. Don't lose this opportunity.

5. 2025-10-25
   listed $189,000 Active 213-char remark

   Show marketing remark (213 chars)

   Take a look at this less than $200k single-family home with a huge back yard for your family and friend's reunion. AC unit and furnace replaced around 07-2025 and water heater 03-2025. Don't lose this opportunity.

6. 2011-09-12
   soldstatus
7. 1991-02-04
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,565 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,565 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,565
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,219
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$292
• After-tax cash flow: $2,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,894
• Household income: $41,386
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2465.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 14% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.35%
• Current HPI: 299.1825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.20%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $186,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-25 Listed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2011-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,565 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.