955 Lucky St · Houston, TX 77088

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1945 6,599 sqft lot Est $155k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 6,599 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1945

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Two covered carport spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story entry (all rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Block foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1945
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit cooling; Window unit heating
• Interior features: Tub/shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Williams Middle (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,623 of 1,662 statewide, top 98%, 411 students, 98% FRL); Washington B T H S (math 27% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 878 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.37%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,344
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
955 Lucky St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,064 (0%)	1mo	$110,000	$103	99
894 N Victory Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,130 (+6%)	5mo	$165,000	$146	70
1028 N Victory Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	960 (-10%)	12mo	$200,000	$208	64
809 Fortune St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,023 (-4%)	9mo	$120,150	$117	62
958 Conklin St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-4%)	3mo	$215,000	$211	60
8602 De Priest St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+2%)	6mo	$115,000	$106	59
7218 Tippett St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-2%)	5mo	$99,995	$96	54
6827 Tuskegee	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+12%)	8mo	$225,000	$189	52
6828 Knox St	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,177 (+11%)	8mo	$240,000	$204	50
7520 E Maxroy St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+13%)	12mo	$165,000	$137	49
7921 Virgil St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,197 (+12%)	6mo	$225,000	$188	45
754 Prosper St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,216 (+14%)	8mo	$99,900	$82	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $21,488
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $55,354
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77088

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,863 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,764/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $974

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $765	-5% $734	+0% $702	+5% $671	+10% $640
Rent	-10% $555	-5% $629	+0% $702	+5% $776	+10% $850
Rate	-1.0pp $758	-0.5pp $730	base $702	+0.5pp $674	+1.0pp $645

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1010 Junell St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,550	$1.49	25d	1	0.26mi
929 Marjorie St Unit 1060806P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$3,091	$2.87	9d	1	0.46mi
8108 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.48mi
8110 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.48mi
8112 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	0d	1	0.48mi
8120 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.51mi
8120 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	45d	1	0.51mi
8122 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.51mi
8118 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.51mi
8306 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	22d	1	0.54mi
8310 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	22d	1	0.54mi
8312 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	22d	1	0.55mi
8312 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	22d	1	0.55mi
783 Fortune St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1328	$1,795	$1.35	18d	1	0.56mi
7486 N Shepherd Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,290	$1.10	45d	1	0.75mi
1464 Ferguson Way Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	850	$1,850	$2.18	45d	1	0.83mi
1825 W Little York Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	787	$880	$1.12	45d	1	0.98mi
1450 Dewalt St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1371	$2,500	$1.82	45d	1	1.05mi
301 W Little York Rd Unit 1722 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,230	$0.93	22d	1	1.27mi
1438 Peach Spring Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.5	1288	$1,599	$1.24	3d	1	1.34mi
7903 Moon Beam St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1217	$1,700	$1.40	18d	1	1.37mi
2407 Ferguson Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1195	$1,650	$1.38	45d	1	1.42mi
833 Paul Quinn St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1226	$1,800	$1.47	45d	1	1.44mi
831 Paul Quinn St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1226	$1,800	$1.47	25d	1	1.44mi
5722 # E Unit Beall St unit Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$2,011	$1.36	45d	1	1.46mi
5720 Beall St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$2,006	$1.36	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   status Active
3. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-03
   status Active
6. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
7. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
8. 2026-03-17
   listed $110,000 Active
9. 1990-05-04
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,764 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,764
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,789
• − Management: −$1,789
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $7,108
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,706
• After-tax cash flow: $6,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,047
• Household income: $54,411
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2294.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Black 37% Two or more races 18% White 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 47% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.37%
• Current HPI: 325.0499
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 1990-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,764 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.