225 Unforgiven Ln · Jarrell, TX 76537

$234,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,599 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 299 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,096 sqft lot $147/sqft · 29% below area Est $330k · 29% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come and see this amazing ranch style home in Jarrell’s community of Eastwood! This spacious one story home has a open floor plan with a large living room, tile flooring throughout the living room and kitchen , center island in kitchen that opens to the family room, quartz countertop, stainless steel appliances, recessed, lighting, and loads of natural light throughout! This home comes equipped with spacious bedrooms, dual vanity in the primary bath, nice large walk-in closet, and more! In the backyard, you will find a covered patio along with a pergola ready for your outdoor entertainment!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Quartz countertop
• Ranch style home

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• TILE FLOORING
• CENTER ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOP
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-394 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1040 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 87d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,243 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,679
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -28.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
464 Josey Wales Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+2%)	5mo	$283,900	$175	80
108 Outlaw Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+2%)	6mo	$239,899	$147	79
217 Bronco Billy Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,616 (+1%)	2mo	$229,900	$142	77
468 Josey Wales Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-7%)	2mo	$272,900	$184	73
120 Outlaw Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-7%)	5mo	$278,900	$188	72
108 Igneous Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-4%)	4mo	$230,000	$150	68
117 Hematite Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,462 (-9%)	5mo	$235,000	$161	64
105 Plata Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,491 (-7%)	3mo	$249,900	$168	64
124 Perfect World Loop	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-11%)	5mo	$229,000	$161	62
329 Enforcer Loop	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-5%)	4mo	$268,190	$176	62
360 Enforcer Loop	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-5%)	6mo	$234,891	$154	60
101 Dirty Harry Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-12%)	3mo	$257,044	$182	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-68,468
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-112,368
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 58 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.2 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $254,445 ($161/sqft)
• Median days on market: 155 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +28.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1040
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,866 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$519 /mo · $6,226/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,365

Max offer price $165,243

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-261	-5% $-328	+0% $-394	+5% $-461	+10% $-527
Rent	-10% $-542	-5% $-468	+0% $-394	+5% $-321	+10% $-247
Rate	-1.0pp $-276	-0.5pp $-335	base $-394	+0.5pp $-455	+1.0pp $-517

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Unforgiven Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	98d	1	0.05mi
140 Drifter Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1623	$1,840	$1.13	74d	1	0.11mi
125 Drifter Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,795	$1.02	24d	1	0.12mi
125 Drifter Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,795	$1.02	87d	1	0.12mi
233 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$1,800	$0.93	67d	1	0.14mi
465 Unforgiven Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,750	$1.14	113d	1	0.17mi
195 Outlaw Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$1,799	$1.14	140d	1	0.23mi
300 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,750	$1.08	10d	1	0.25mi
157 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,725	$1.09	76d	1	0.27mi
157 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	68d	1	0.27mi
420 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	100d	1	0.27mi
112 Dollars Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,745	$0.89	139d	1	0.32mi
342 Line of Fire Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,595	$1.16	42d	1	0.32mi
120 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$1,875	$0.98	119d	1	0.32mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	139d	1	0.33mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	119d	1	0.33mi
128 Dollars Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	78d	1	0.35mi
409 Line of Fire Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2240	$1,895	$0.85	24d	1	0.35mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	100d	1	0.36mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	98d	1	0.36mi
137 Hematite Ln Unit 1 Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,650	$1.25	74d	1	0.36mi
116 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,100	$1.09	0d	1	0.37mi
617 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,795	$1.07	63d	1	0.39mi
637 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,795	$1.06	139d	1	0.41mi
636 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$1,800	$0.93	75d	1	0.44mi
108 Igneous Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,800	$1.17	108d	1	0.48mi
325 Ammonite Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1774	$1,675	$0.94	10d	1	0.50mi
608 Magnum Force Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,775	$1.27	40d	1	0.56mi
208 Plata Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,750	$1.16	10d	1	0.57mi
2131 County Road 314 Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,000	$1.20	62d	1	0.57mi
376 Rae Ln Unit A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	117d	1	0.57mi
376 Rae Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	24d	1	0.57mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	110d	1	0.65mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	119d	1	0.67mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,600	$1.25	88d	1	0.70mi
236 Geode Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	1981	$1,995	$1.01	117d	1	0.70mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,695	$1.40	139d	1	0.72mi
125 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,650	$1.01	139d	1	0.73mi
221 Geode Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,800	$1.09	77d	1	0.74mi
744 Xanadu Dr Unit 53K Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1764	$1,750	$0.99	64d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $234,900 Active 299 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $234,900 Active 298 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $234,900 Active 297 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $234,900 Active 296 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $234,900 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $234,900 Active 294 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $234,900 Active 293 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $234,900 Active 292 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $234,900 Active 291 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $234,900 Active 290 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $234,900 Active 289 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $234,900 Active 288 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $234,900 Active 287 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $234,900 Active 286 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $234,900 Active 280 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $234,900 Active 279 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $234,900 Active 278 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $234,900 Active 275 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $234,900 Active 274 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $234,900 Active 273 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $234,900 Active 272 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $234,900 Active 271 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $234,900 Active 270 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $234,900 Active 269 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $234,900 Active 268 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $234,900 Active 267 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $234,900 Active 266 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $234,900 Active 265 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $234,900 Active 264 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $234,900 Active 263 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $234,900 Active 262 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $234,900 Active 261 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $234,900 Active 260 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $234,900 Active 259 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $234,900 Active 258 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $234,900 Active 257 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $234,900 Active 255 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $234,900 Active 254 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $234,900 Active 253 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $234,900 Active 252 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $234,900 Active 250 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $234,900 Active 249 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $234,900 Active 248 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $234,900 Active 247 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $234,900 Active 244 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $234,900 Active 243 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $234,900 Active 242 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $234,900 Active 241 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $234,900 Active 239 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $234,900 Active 237 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,226 · $519/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,226 · $519/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$6,226
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$8,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,117
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,995–$23,985 screening

This spacious ranch-style home in Jarrell's Eastwood community is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed for the exterior and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Prune bushes — Improves landscaping and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $234,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $259,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-29 Listed $275,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+42.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,226 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.