317 Monroe Dr · Lakeland, FL 33809

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Manufactured public records · 228 Days on market

Built 1983 8,098 sqft lot $46/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This very well maintained home is located in the peaceful retirement community of Martin Estates. The spacious home features an open kitchen with plenty of cabinets and drawers. The masterbath includes dual sinks and a built in bidet. The home feautres an attached Florida room, perfect for relaxing. The community boasts recreational amenities such as a swimming pool and shuffleboard court. Situated near shopping and highways, the privacy of this community is convenient.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Clubhouse
• Florida room

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• NEW SUBFLOORING
• NEW PLUMBING
• LARGE SHED
• WORKSHOP WITH ELECTRIC
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,300 (public records); Lot size about 0.19 acre (approximately 0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Financial info: Total monthly fees approximately $46; total annual fees listed as $552
• HOA & community: HOA required; $46 monthly; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, laundry, shuffleboard court; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs), max pet weight 25 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces northeast; Homesteaded
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide unit
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Sliding doors; Shed(s); Storage; Workshop; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 135

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $145k implies a 190% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.54%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,718
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $27,476
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $421/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,142

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $574	-5% $533	+0% $492	+5% $451	+10% $410
Rent	-10% $352	-5% $422	+0% $492	+5% $562	+10% $631
Rate	-1.0pp $565	-0.5pp $529	base $492	+0.5pp $454	+1.0pp $416

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Lindale St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,350	$1.68	24d	1	0.40mi
142 Lindale St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,895	$1.28	24d	1	0.46mi
8039 Ridgeglen Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,895	$1.37	11d	1	0.50mi
734 Fox Lake Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,910	$1.43	4d	1	0.98mi
858 Fox Lake Dr Unit 858 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,495	$1.15	11d	1	1.00mi
236 Village Crest Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,550	$1.36	14d	1	1.10mi
239 Village Crest Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,495	$1.64	24d	1	1.13mi
114 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,450	$1.40	24d	1	1.15mi
124 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,550	$1.50	4d	1	1.15mi
6268 Sandpipers Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1484	$1,995	$1.34	24d	1	1.16mi
259 Village View Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	885	$1,600	$1.81	24d	1	1.18mi
8006 Brookeshire Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,890	$1.45	20d	1	1.23mi
235 Leelon Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	921	$1,295	$1.41	24d	1	1.27mi
1031 Hidden Ct Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1712	$1,995	$1.17	24d	1	1.27mi
6131 Doe Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	15d	1	1.28mi
165 Shannon Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	4d	1	1.35mi
5818 Bambi Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,200	$1.57	24d	1	1.36mi
6031 Crafton Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,125	$1.23	15d	1	1.42mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	15d	1	1.47mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	24d	1	1.47mi
6032 Norton Rd Unit 6032 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,295	$1.47	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $145,000 Pending 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 228 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $145,000 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 222 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $149,000 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,000 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,000 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-05-06
    price $149,000
12. 2026-02-25
    price $158,000
13. 2026-01-29
    price $160,000
14. 2025-10-28
    listed $165,000 Active
15. 2025-09-22
    historical
16. 2025-03-30
    listed $175,000 Active
17. 2013-06-05
    soldstatus $50,000 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    This very well maintained home is located in the peaceful retirement community of Martin Estates. The spacious home features an open kitchen with plenty of cabinets and drawers. The masterbath includes dual sinks and a built in bidet. The home feautres an attached Florida room, perfect for relaxing. The community boasts recreational amenities such as a swimming pool and shuffleboard court. Situated near shopping and highways, the privacy of this community is convenient.

18. 2013-03-12
    listed $51,500 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    This very well maintained home is located in the peaceful retirement community of Martin Estates. The spacious home features an open kitchen with plenty of cabinets and drawers. The masterbath includes dual sinks and a built in bidet. The home feautres an attached Florida room, perfect for relaxing. The community boasts recreational amenities such as a swimming pool and shuffleboard court. Situated near shopping and highways, the privacy of this community is convenient.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $421 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$782/yr (+$65/mo · 185.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$421
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $3,745
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$899
• After-tax cash flow: $5,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+189.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $158,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-30 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-05 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-12 Listed $51,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $421 · +39.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.