2186 Forest Dr SW · Holden Beach, NC 28462

$134,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · Manufactured · 86 Days on market

Built 1999 0.34 ac lot Est $145k · 7% under $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY!! Single wide manufactured home situated on an oversized lot in the quiet neighborhood of Forest Hills Subdivision of Supply, NC. This property offers a convenient location just 15 minutes to Shallotte for shopping, dining, And everyday needs, and only 10 minutes to the beautiful beaches of Holden Beach. Ideal for investors, rental income potential or buyers looking for a value-add opportunity in a growing coastal area. Property is being sold AS IS. Go and show. All showings must be submitted through Broker Bay

Key facts

• County water
• County sewer
• Convenient location

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• COUNTY WATER
• COUNTY SEWER
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• RENTAL INCOME POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.1% in Holden Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#334 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: cost of living D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 506 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $135k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,899 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.85%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,002
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2149 Seashore Hills Rd SW	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,012 (-0%)	10mo	$165,000	$163	84
1890 Vale St SW	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,049 (+4%)	8mo	$146,000	$139	78
2152 Forest Dr SW	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+5%)	8mo	$156,000	$147	76
2024 Crest Ln SW	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,085 (+7%)	2mo	$115,000	$106	76
2075 Gum St SW	0.22mi	2/2.0	924 (-9%)	2mo	$105,000	$114	73
2004 Gum St SW	0.08mi	2/1.5	893 (-12%)	3mo	$110,000	$123	72
1979 Cedar Ln SW	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (+4%)	7mo	$143,000	$136	72
1757 Oxpen Rd SW	0.43mi	2/2.0	980 (-3%)	9mo	$140,000	$143	67
2018 Blackjack St SW	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	962 (-5%)	9mo	$185,000	$192	63
2019 Cedar Ln SW	0.27mi	2/2.0	875 (-14%)	5mo	$203,000	$232	60
2199 Helmsman Dr SW	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+4%)	2mo	$201,000	$190	60
2180 Creekwood Ct SW	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (-3%)	8mo	$122,900	$125	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,923
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $32,399
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28462

• Active inventory: 506
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,661 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,189

Max offer price $134,999

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $467	-5% $420	+0% $373	+5% $327	+10% $280
Rent	-10% $242	-5% $308	+0% $373	+5% $439	+10% $504
Rate	-1.0pp $441	-0.5pp $408	base $373	+0.5pp $338	+1.0pp $303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $134,999
3. 2026-04-01
   status Active
4. 2026-03-31
   historical
5. 2026-03-11
   price $139,999
6. 2026-01-24
   price $155,000
7. 2026-01-11
   listed $175,000 Active
8. 2003-05-01
   soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $2,481
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$595
• After-tax cash flow: $3,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Holden Beach

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #334
• US rank: #13586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,340
• Household income: $60,349
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 269.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.44%
• Current HPI: 144.2462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+117.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $134,999 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $139,999 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $155,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $175,000 Hive MLS
• 2003-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $162 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.