863 Main St · Sugar Notch, PA 18706

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,670 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 1973 4,356 sqft lot $62/sqft · 39% below area Est $273k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Full of potential and ready for its next chapter, this single-family home is ideal for a buyer with vision and creativity. With renovation needed throughout, there is opportunity here to restore and add value while creating something special. Convenient location and plenty of upside make this one worth exploring. Property sold as-is.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 99 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#931 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hanover Area SD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #484 of 539 in PA (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 349 units permitted in Luzerne County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Luzerne County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $165k implies a 1275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.49%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,529
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -39.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
735 Main St	0.36mi	5/1.5 (+1)	2,810 (+5%)	8mo	$72,000	$26	61
670 Main St	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,287 (-14%)	2mo	$225,000	$98	42
20 Tanya Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,322 (-13%)	19mo	$170,000	$73	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,087
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $31,892
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18706

• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $624/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,248

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $165,000 Active 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Full of potential and ready for its next chapter, this single-family home is ideal for a buyer with vision and creativity. With renovation needed throughout, there is opportunity here to restore and add value while creating something special. Convenient location and plenty of upside make this one worth exploring. Property sold as-is.

16. 2026-03-11
    listed $165,000 Active 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Full of potential and ready for its next chapter, this single-family home is ideal for a buyer with vision and creativity. With renovation needed throughout, there is opportunity here to restore and add value while creating something special. Convenient location and plenty of upside make this one worth exploring. Property sold as-is.

17. 2016-06-20
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $624 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,616 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$991/yr (+$83/mo · 158.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$624
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,689
• − Management: −$1,689
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $2,242
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$538
• After-tax cash flow: $4,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hanover Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4211420
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 18.6/100
• National rank: #8903
• State rank: #484 of 539 in PA

Livability — Sugar Notch

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #931
• US rank: #10128

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sugar Notch, PA
• County: Luzerne County · 118,885 people
• Metro: Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA
• Population (ZIP): 16,387
• Household income: $58,558
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 568.0

Population outlook (Luzerne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,505 people
• By 2030: 319,943 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 322,643 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 330,817 · +3.5%
• By 2075: 379,145 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 431,908 · +35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Scotch-Irish 3% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Luzerne

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 40.0% · R 59.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.02%
• Current HPI: 196.19
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1275.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $165,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-9.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $624 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.