411 Griffin Rd · Gumlog, GA 30557

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 2.00 ac lot ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you've been looking for space, privacy, and a home that's ready to go, this is it. Situated on 2 acres of flat pasture, this 3 bed, 2 bath home offers the perfect setup for anyone wanting room to spread out, start a mini homestead, or just enjoy peaceful country living. Inside, you'll find a bright, open layout with a large living area flowing into the kitchen, featuring a spacious island, modern finishes, and plenty of cabinet space. The home also includes a dedicated mudroom/laundry area, giving you functional everyday living. The primary suite is built to stand out, with a double vanity, walk-in shower, and a soaking tub designed for comfort. Step outside and you've got a clean slate

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Double vanity
• Large living area

Tags

• 2 ACRES OF FLAT PASTURE
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• DEDICATED MUDROOM LAUNDRY AREA
• DOUBLE VANITY
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, and VA Loan; Agent owned / Agent-seller relationship; Home warranty included
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; Parking pad
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank; Underground utilities
• Home design: New construction; Manufactured home / Single family residence; Manufactured house structure
• Construction: Built in 2026; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Builder-reported living area: 1580 square feet
• Exterior features: Open lot; Pasture

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Split bedroom plan; One-level home; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Laundry features: Other

🏗️ New construction. The $250,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $336,540.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-973 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#185 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Franklin County (rural): math 38% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #61 of 174 in GA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lavonia Elementary School (math 31% / reading 28%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 549 students, 68% FRL); Franklin County Middle School (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #206 of 470 statewide, top 45%, 826 students, 60% FRL); Franklin County High School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #93 of 424 statewide, top 23%, 1,048 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 163 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $171,276 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.39%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,540
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
265 Anderson Thomas Rd Unit F2	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,787 (+13%)	19mo	$379,900	$213	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $121,364
• Equity at exit: $303,182

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $406,167
• Equity at exit: $653,823

Cash invested: $94,231 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30557

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,713 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,765
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$421 /mo · $5,048/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-973

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,944

Max offer price $195,793

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-740	-5% $-856	+0% $-973	+5% $-1,089	+10% $-1,205
Rent	-10% $-1,108	-5% $-1,040	+0% $-973	+5% $-905	+10% $-837
Rate	-1.0pp $-803	-0.5pp $-887	base $-973	+0.5pp $-1,060	+1.0pp $-1,149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,135
• Closing costs: $10,096
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $250,000 Under Contract 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 40 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
8. 2026-04-29
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2026-04-28
   status Under Contract
10. 2026-04-20
    listed $250,000 New
11. 2026-04-20
    historical
12. 2025-12-02
    listed $255,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,851
• − Property taxes: −$5,048
• − Insurance: −$1,683
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$9,790
• Taxable loss: −$18,108
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,346
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County
• NCES district ID: 1302250
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,985
• Composite: 30.28/100
• National rank: #6281
• State rank: #61 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gumlog

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #11633

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,905

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,625 people
• By 2030: 22,725 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 22,806 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 22,713 · +0.4%
• By 2075: 22,514 · -0.5%
• By 2100: 20,768 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 8% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.6) · D 13.6% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -72.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.6 2020: R+69.5 2016: R+68.6 2012: R+59.5 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.48%
• Current HPI: 350.6536
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $250,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $255,000 GAMLS