Champion 10 Duck River Estates Plan · Columbia, TN 38401

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 239 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -2.7

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,216 sq. ft. of bright, open living space with modern finishes and a spacious primary suite. Take a tour today!

Key facts

• Listed 238 days

🏗️ New construction. The $120,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $182,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-294 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.0% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#207 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Maury County (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #108 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Riverside Elementary (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #786 of 952 statewide, top 84%, 429 students, 0% FRL); E. A. Cox Middle School (math 6% / reading 7%, grade F, #284 of 333 statewide, top 86%, 656 students, 0% FRL); Columbia Central High School (math 7% / reading 27%, grade F, #225 of 332 statewide, top 69%, 1,474 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 1327 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,650 units permitted in Maury County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maury County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.61%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,000
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -34.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Tommy Dr	1.38mi	3/2.0	1,258 (+4%)	3mo	$295,000	$234	56
102 Bullock St	1.43mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-6%)	17mo	$303,000	$265	41
709 Poplar St	1.48mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+10%)	12mo	$299,900	$225	39
1801 Goldsberry St	1.27mi	3/2.5	1,511 (+24%)	2mo	$278,000	$184	36
216 Granada Dr	1.43mi	3/2.0	1,375 (+13%)	13mo	$215,000	$156	32
702 Royal Oaks Dr	1.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,068 (-12%)	8mo	$245,000	$229	30
117 Tommy Dr	1.43mi	3/2.5	1,440 (+18%)	13mo	$297,700	$207	27
1321 Crofton Park Dr	1.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (+24%)	10mo	$339,000	$225	26
209 Granada Dr	1.38mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-16%)	12mo	$265,000	$259	26
1309 Crofton Park Dr	1.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (+18%)	14mo	$339,900	$238	23
1831 Goldsberry Dr	1.29mi	3/2.5	1,503 (+24%)	21mo	$268,875	$179	21
1310 Crofton Park Dr	1.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,465 (+20%)	19mo	$332,500	$227	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-45,573
• Equity at exit: $27,137

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-52,459
• Equity at exit: $15,736

Cash invested: $50,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active
• Median asking: $120,000 ($99/sqft)
• Median days on market: 9 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +51.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 38401

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 1327
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,290 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$954
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$228 /mo · $2,730/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,663

Max offer price $139,418

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-168	-5% $-231	+0% $-294	+5% $-357	+10% $-420
Rent	-10% $-396	-5% $-345	+0% $-294	+5% $-243	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-203	-0.5pp $-248	base $-294	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-389

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,500
• Closing costs: $5,460
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 Shawnee Dr Unit 312 Columbia, TN	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,275	$1.24	17d	1	1.19mi
312 Shawnee Dr Columbia, TN	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,400	$1.37	51d	1	1.19mi
413 Shawnee Dr Columbia, TN	2.0	1.0	940	$1,245	$1.32	47d	1	1.22mi
1023 Chickasaw Trl Columbia, TN	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,475	$1.39	17d	1	1.33mi
1216 Hampshire Pike Columbia, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0	799	$1,479	$1.85	11d	6	1.40mi
1422 Club House Dr Columbia, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$1,877	$1.81	11d	20	1.40mi
721 Poplar St Unit A Columbia, TN	4.0	2.5	1491	$2,500	$1.68	93d	1	1.44mi
721 Poplar St Unit B Columbia, TN	4.0	2.5	1491	$2,500	$1.68	52d	1	1.44mi
206 Greenview Dr Columbia, TN	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	17d	1	1.47mi
1106 W 7th St Unit 2 Columbia, TN	2.0	1.0	760	$1,000	$1.32	21d	1	1.47mi
1106 W 7th St Unit 3 Bedroom Columbia, TN	3.0	1.0	760	$1,200	$1.58	38d	1	1.47mi
1022 Hillcrest Ave Unit 1 Columbia, TN	2.0	1.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	35d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-07-11
   days on market $120,000 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-07-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-07-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-07-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-07-06
   days on market $120,000 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-07-06
   days on market $120,000 Active 233 DOM
7. 2026-07-03
   days on market $120,000 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-07-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-07-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-06-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-06-29
    days on market $120,000 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-06-28
    days on market $120,000 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-06-27
    days on market $120,000 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-06-27
    days on market $120,000 Active 224 DOM
15. 2026-06-25
    days on market $120,000 Active 222 DOM
16. 2026-06-22
    days on market $120,000 Active 220 DOM
17. 2026-06-21
    days on market $120,000 Active 219 DOM
18. 2026-06-18
    days on market $120,000 Active 216 DOM
19. 2026-06-17
    days on market $120,000 Active 215 DOM
20. 2026-06-16
    days on market $120,000 Active 214 DOM
21. 2026-06-15
    days on market $120,000 Active 213 DOM
22. 2026-06-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 211 DOM
23. 2026-06-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 210 DOM
24. 2026-06-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 207 DOM
25. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 206 DOM
26. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 205 DOM
27. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 201 DOM
28. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 200 DOM
29. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 199 DOM
30. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 198 DOM
31. 2025-11-14
    listed $120,000 Active 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,216 sq. ft. of bright, open living space with modern finishes and a spacious primary suite. Take a tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,195
• − Property taxes: −$2,730
• − Insurance: −$1,580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$5,295
• Taxable loss: −$6,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,630
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,080–$18,240 screening

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,216 sq. ft. of bright, open living space with modern finishes and a spacious primary suite. The property is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Fresh flooring improves aesthetics and reduces maintenance costs. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 13/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Riverside Elementary F TN #786/952 Nat'l #38,100/41,679 Middle Whitthorne Middle School F TN #257/333 Nat'l #13,307/14,009 High Columbia Central High School F TN #225/332 Nat'l #15,029/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maury County
• NCES district ID: 4702760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,668
• Composite: 17.69/100
• National rank: #9024
• State rank: #108 of 139 in TN

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #16090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, TN
• County: Maury County · 102,894 people
• City population: 67,482
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 67,482
• Household income: $68,475
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Maury County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,894 people
• By 2030: 110,269 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 124,426 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 137,543 · +33.7%
• By 2075: 167,438 · +62.7%
• By 2100: 184,489 · +79.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maury

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.6) · D 27.1% · R 71.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -44.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.6 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.75%
• Current HPI: 343.0362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-14 Listed $120,000 Zillow