2900 S Canyon Rd #58 · Ellensburg, WA 98926

$91,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 854 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2022 $108/sqft · 31% below area Est $177k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home in the serene Millpond Community in Ellensburg, WA! This brand-new, never-lived-in double-wide manufactured home offers 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms, a gourmet kitchen with new appliances, and an open, airy living area with large windows and durable flooring. Located in an all-ages park close to shopping and major roads, this home has convenience with a country feel. Pets are welcome subject to restrictions!

Key facts

• Large windows
• Durable flooring
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• LARGE WINDOWS
• DURABLE FLOORING
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 2.8% in Ellensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#64 in WA, #1,157 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D-.
• Ellensburg School District (town): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #148 of 291 in WA (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 302 active listings in the ZIP; 433 units permitted in Kittitas County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kittitas County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,479 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.14%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,422
• List price: $91,999
• Delta: -48.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-10,965
• Equity at exit: $13,717

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-12,991
• Equity at exit: $7,954

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98926

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,345

Max offer price $91,999

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $91,999 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $91,999 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $91,999 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $91,999 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $91,999 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $91,999 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $91,999 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $91,999 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $91,999 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $91,999 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $91,999 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $91,999 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $91,999 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $91,999 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $91,999 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $91,999 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $91,999 Active 47 DOM
18. 2026-04-12
    listed $91,999 Active
19. 2025-04-21
    listed $91,999 Active
20. 2024-12-18
    listed $91,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$5,578
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,428
• − Management: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $211
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$51
• After-tax cash flow: $1,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellensburg School District
• NCES district ID: 5302460
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,944
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #6026
• State rank: #148 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ellensburg

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #1157

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kittitas County · 34,353 people
• City population: 34,353
• Metro: Ellensburg, WA
• Population (ZIP): 34,353
• Household income: $71,137
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2076.0

Population outlook (Kittitas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,605 people
• By 2030: 51,628 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 57,361 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 63,241 · +30.1%
• By 2075: 79,310 · +63.2%
• By 2100: 94,769 · +95.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kittitas

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 41.1% · R 55.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+14.5 2012: R+12.6 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -193.62%
• Current HPI: 211.3198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Ellensburg, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Listed $91,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-21 Listed $91,999 YAMLS
• 2024-12-18 Listed $91,999 YAMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $180 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.