2520 Barnes Rd · Lake Bryan, TX 77807

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1998

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Livestock friendly with mature shade trees, this 1999 mobile home is located on 3/4 an acre. Home has 1,216 square feet of indoor living with spacious family room, dining area with built-in buffet and cabinets, and large laundry room with freezer space. Master bedroom suite with walk-in closet, separate shower, and corner garden tub. Home has been updated to non mobile home metal doors, fresh custom paint, updated A/C, and landscaped yard. An outdoor lovers paradise with front and back covered porches, garage is attached to the front porch, 20'X20' shop on slab with 220 & 110 electricity, storage shed, fenced and cross fenced for horses and donkeys, and a loafing shed.

Key facts

• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $665 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#722 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kemp-Carver El (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 504 students, 92% FRL); Arthur L Davila Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,044 students, 85% FRL); James Earl Rudder H S (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,769 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 68% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 304 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 25% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.81%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $22,082
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $73,658
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77807

• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $731/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $665

Break-even live

Break-even rent $973

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $736	-5% $701	+0% $665	+5% $630	+10% $594
Rent	-10% $522	-5% $594	+0% $665	+5% $737	+10% $809
Rate	-1.0pp $728	-0.5pp $697	base $665	+0.5pp $633	+1.0pp $600

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2087 W Osr Apt A Bryan, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-10
   soldstatus
2. 2019-08-29
   listed $99,900
3. 2017-05-02
   soldstatus
4. 2017-04-28
   soldstatus 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   Livestock friendly with mature shade trees, this 1999 mobile home is located on 3/4 an acre. Home has 1,216 square feet of indoor living with spacious family room, dining area with built-in buffet and cabinets, and large laundry room with freezer space. Master bedroom suite with walk-in closet, separate shower, and corner garden tub. Home has been updated to non mobile home metal doors, fresh custom paint, updated A/C, and landscaped yard. An outdoor lovers paradise with front and back covered porches, garage is attached to the front porch, 20'X20' shop on slab with 220 & 110 electricity, storage shed, fenced and cross fenced for horses and donkeys, and a loafing shed.

5. 2016-04-28
   listed $92,000 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   Livestock friendly with mature shade trees, this 1999 mobile home is located on 3/4 an acre. Home has 1,216 square feet of indoor living with spacious family room, dining area with built-in buffet and cabinets, and large laundry room with freezer space. Master bedroom suite with walk-in closet, separate shower, and corner garden tub. Home has been updated to non mobile home metal doors, fresh custom paint, updated A/C, and landscaped yard. An outdoor lovers paradise with front and back covered porches, garage is attached to the front porch, 20'X20' shop on slab with 220 & 110 electricity, storage shed, fenced and cross fenced for horses and donkeys, and a loafing shed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $731 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,556/yr (+$130/mo · 212.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$731
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,742
• − Management: −$1,742
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $6,299
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,512
• After-tax cash flow: $6,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811790
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,895
• Composite: 26.26/100
• National rank: #7253
• State rank: #608 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Bryan

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #722
• US rank: #13455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Bryan, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,227
• Household income: $74,375
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 629.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 18% Black 14% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Guatemala, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.38%
• Current HPI: 186.1387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-29 Listed $99,900 BCSRMLS
• 2017-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-04-28 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2016-04-28 Listed $92,000 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $731 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.