6311 New Mexico Trl · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$97,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2020 3,485 sqft lot Est $119k · 19% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,485 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2020

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property includes unknown encumbrance(s); Municipal utility district: No
• Financial info: Listing accepted for cash, conventional, or 1031 exchange; No second mortgage indicated; Special listing condition: Real Estate Owned
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual HOA fee of $96; HOA covers full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, and management fees; Community features include clubhouse and community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Aggregate driveway
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; All-weather road access
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; Not attached to another property; Multi-parcel
• Construction: Built in 2020; Preowned
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Cleared lot; Corner lot; Access easement

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on level 1 with ensuite bathroom (11 x 12); Bedroom on level 1 (7 x 10); Bedroom on level 2 (11 x 10)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on level 1 (5 x 9); Additional bathroom on level 1 (5 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; High-speed internet available; One living area; One dining area; 9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $617 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nettie Baccus El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 466 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.28%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,040
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6121 New Mexico Trl	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-4%)	8mo	$115,000	$124	72
4215 Tennessee Trl	0.52mi	3/2.0	901 (-6%)	3mo	$149,999	$166	63
4214 W Virginia Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+11%)	4mo	$139,999	$132	55
5717 Arkansas Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0	924 (-4%)	15mo	$154,900	$168	47
5718 Arkansas Trl	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	18mo	$29,999	$31	47
4306 Tennessee Trl	0.55mi	3/2.0	896 (-7%)	21mo	$101,900	$114	45
3701 New York Ct	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (-12%)	15mo	$85,000	$100	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $20,544
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $56,445
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,648 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,529/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $867

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $672	-5% $645	+0% $617	+5% $590	+10% $562
Rent	-10% $487	-5% $552	+0% $617	+5% $682	+10% $748
Rate	-1.0pp $666	-0.5pp $642	base $617	+0.5pp $592	+1.0pp $567

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4214 W Virginia Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,595	$1.50	44d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $97,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $97,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,529 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,775 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$246/yr (+$20/mo · 16.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$1,529
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $6,246
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,499
• After-tax cash flow: $5,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• City population: 58,506
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $97,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-01-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+27.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,529 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.