4329 Ellisboro Rd · Stokesdale, NC 27357

$179,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1940 1.07 ac lot Est $188k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect investment property on 1.07 acres! Nice cleared lot with plenty of potential! Cute bungalow with front porch and rear covered porch for those summer evenings!

Key facts

• Included dryer
• Included washer
• 1.07 acre lot

Tags

• UPGRADED VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• INCLUDED REFRIGERATOR
• INCLUDED WASHER
• INCLUDED DRYER
• INCLUDED SLIDE-IN RANGE
• ENORMOUS WALK-UP ATTIC

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Security: Deadbolt locks
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power
• Home design: Single-story house; Stick/site-built residential property; Built in 1940; Existing structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared, level lot; No fencing; Public-maintained road access; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes living areas and bedrooms)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (electric)
• Interior features: Deadbolt locks; Primary bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($834/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.1% in Stokesdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#102 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Rockingham County Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #120 of 178 in NC (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in Rockingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockingham County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $180k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,866 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.66%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,824
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4286 Ellisboro Rd	0.07mi	2/1.0	1,127 (+9%)	18mo	$205,000	$182	66
4564 Ellisboro Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+2%)	20mo	$195,000	$185	51
231 Christopher Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+8%)	10mo	$185,000	$165	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,813
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,260
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27357

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $584/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,351

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 616-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $179,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $584 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,475 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$891/yr (+$74/mo · 152.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$584
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$550
• After-tax cash flow: $1,384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockingham County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703990
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,914
• Composite: 32.6/100
• National rank: #5673
• State rank: #120 of 178 in NC

Livability — Stokesdale

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #6658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,785

Population outlook (Rockingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,103 people
• By 2030: 83,763 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 76,082 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 68,106 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 52,531 · -39.7%
• By 2100: 39,871 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.7% · R 67.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.9pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+30.0 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.61%
• Current HPI: 280.5264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+350.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $179,900 Triad MLS
• 2023-08-04 Rental Removed — RENTLY
• 2019-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2012-05-01 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Triad MLS
• 2012-04-16 Listed $39,900 Triad MLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $584 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.