4517 Old Nursery Rd · Rose Hill, VA 24281

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1960 13 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Country Home with 13.41 +/- Acres!! New Wiring, new roof, new PEX Plumbing, New Well Pump and Pressure Tank all installed in 2019! Laminate Flooring, Convenient Floorplan, and Guest House! Surrounded by woodlands with abundant wildlife! Call today to schedule your tour!

Key facts

• Blacktop driveway
• Laminate flooring
• New pex plumbing

Tags

• NEW WIRING
• NEW ROOF
• NEW PEX PLUMBING
• NEW WELL PUMP
• BLACKTOP DRIVEWAY
• LAMINATE FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Detached property; 712 building area (per tax records)
• Construction: Wood siding and frame construction
• Exterior features: Wooded setting with country views; Corner lot; Rolling slopes

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall cooling
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Unfinished basement; Storage structure on the property
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($285/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $87k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.9% in Rose Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#49 in VA, #1,166 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $110k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $86,985 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $33,619
• Equity at exit: $69,570

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.17×
• Total profit: $97,506
• Equity at exit: $126,526

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24281

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $489/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $840

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 362-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $110,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$413/yr (+$34/mo · 84.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$489
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$835
• − Management: −$835
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$1,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$392
• After-tax cash flow: $677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $31,356
• Composite: 50.06/100
• National rank: #1913
• State rank: #62 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rose Hill

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 28,136
• Population (ZIP): 2,327

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,861 people
• By 2030: 21,701 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,188 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 16,619 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 11,795 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 8,290 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.8% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.06%
• Current HPI: 142.4815
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+175.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $110,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2020-08-26 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2020-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-03 Listed $59,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2018-08-23 Sold (MLS) $37,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2018-04-13 Listed $39,900 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $489 · +61.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.