18225 County Road 403 · Kennett, MO 63857

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Other public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1983 1.00 ac lot $39/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living close to town. This home could have just the charm you've been looking for with a little bit of work. Cozy up to a nice fire in the living room when the weather is cold. Kitchen and separate dining room. Living room, kitchen and dining sits in the middle of the home. A spacious primary bedroom with good sized closet and bath was built on in approximately 1997. Another 2 bedrooms and full bath are on the other side of the living room. This home has a 2 car carport, a storage shed, and a covered front porch with ramp and stairs. 1 Acre +/- gives plenty of space to add landscaping, a fire pit, swing, outdoor grilling or dining area, pets, or a garden. There is a lot of potential with this home. Will not go Government Assisted Loan Programs. Cash or Conventional only.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Kitchen
• Living room

Tags

• LIVING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• DINING ROOM
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 6.5% in Kennett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#561 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, crime F.
• Senath-Hornersville C-8 (rural): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #261 of 324 in MO (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Dunklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dunklin County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.73%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,195
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -52.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $19,853
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $58,446
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63857

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $377/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $577

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    historical Active Under Contract 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Country living close to town. This home could have just the charm you've been looking for with a little bit of work. Cozy up to a nice fire in the living room when the weather is cold. Kitchen and separate dining room. Living room, kitchen and dining sits in the middle of the home. A spacious primary bedroom with good sized closet and bath was built on in approximately 1997. Another 2 bedrooms and full bath are on the other side of the living room. This home has a 2 car carport, a storage shed, and a covered front porch with ramp and stairs. 1 Acre +/- gives plenty of space to add landscaping, a fire pit, swing, outdoor grilling or dining area, pets, or a garden. There is a lot of potential with this home. Will not go Government Assisted Loan Programs. Cash or Conventional only.

17. 2026-02-09
    listed $75,000 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Country living close to town. This home could have just the charm you've been looking for with a little bit of work. Cozy up to a nice fire in the living room when the weather is cold. Kitchen and separate dining room. Living room, kitchen and dining sits in the middle of the home. A spacious primary bedroom with good sized closet and bath was built on in approximately 1997. Another 2 bedrooms and full bath are on the other side of the living room. This home has a 2 car carport, a storage shed, and a covered front porch with ramp and stairs. 1 Acre +/- gives plenty of space to add landscaping, a fire pit, swing, outdoor grilling or dining area, pets, or a garden. There is a lot of potential with this home. Will not go Government Assisted Loan Programs. Cash or Conventional only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $377 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $728 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$350/yr (+$29/mo · 92.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$377
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,165
• − Management: −$1,165
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,099
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,224
• After-tax cash flow: $4,810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Senath-Hornersville C-8
• NCES district ID: 2927870
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,604
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7280
• State rank: #261 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kennett

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #561
• US rank: #20397

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,964

Population outlook (Dunklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,599 people
• By 2030: 27,230 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 24,696 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 22,402 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 17,776 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 13,890 · -51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Dunklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.8% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.3pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+57.0 2016: R+53.6 2012: R+30.2 2008: R+21.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.51%
• Current HPI: 127.6077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Listed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $377 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.