2635 Phaeton Dr · Oroville East, CA 95966

$98,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,795 sqft · Manufactured public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1987 9,148 sqft lot $90/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step right up, folks, and feast your eyes on 2635 Phaeton Dr in sunny Oroville, CA! This residential Fixer Upper, boasting a generous 1795 square feet of living space, isn't just a house; it's a passport to pure joy and endless giggles. Prepare to have your socks charmed right off once you renovate this Fixer Upper! The kitchen is where culinary dreams take flight, featuring a double oven that's practically begging you to host a bake-off (or at least perfectly roast two different things at once!). No more waiting for the first batch of cookies to finish before the second can begin - pure genius! When it's time to unwind, the bathroom offers a double vanity, ensuring no more elbow wars over

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Backyard
• Family room

Tags

• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• FAMILY ROOM
• BACKYARD
• PRIVATE HOA
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Monthly association fee of $90; Community amenities include pool and recreation facilities; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public irrigation district; Natural gas available; 220 volt electrical service (including kitchen and laundry)
• Home design: Manufactured home — detached; Residential property; Built in 1987; Single-story
• Construction: Composition roof; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Landscape in front yard; Shed(s)/storage structure(s); No fencing; No private pool or spa; Paved sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Synthetic counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Hood over range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet (2+)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with double sinks and tub/shower over; Additional bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Storage area(s); Front porch; One-level living
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with hookups; Laundry located inside a room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $500 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.4% in Oroville East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,082 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Palermo Union Elementary (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,149 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.84%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,635
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2654 Brougham Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,532 (-15%)	13mo	$234,000	$153	61
2647 Chaise Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,618 (-10%)	20mo	$226,000	$140	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $16,023
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $55,282
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95966

• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,660/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $991

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $98,000 Pending 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $98,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $98,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   pricedays on market $98,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2005-01-10
   soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,661 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$1,660
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,559
• − Management: −$1,559
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $4,795
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,151
• After-tax cash flow: $4,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palermo Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629540
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $39,628
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #12903
• State rank: #1149 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Oroville East

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1082
• US rank: #25347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oroville East, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $65,586
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.58%
• Current HPI: 267.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2005-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,660 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.