Cibola Plan · Wylie, TX 75407

$228,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The first floor of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan that combines a fully-equipped kitchen with the living and dining areas to maximize the footprint of the home. There are four bedrooms located upstairs, including the luxe owner's suite, which is positioned at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Open floorplan
• Enhanced privacy

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FULLY-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• ENHANCED PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Princeton, TX (Cibola Plan address listing)
• Financial info: List price $228,999

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 1-car garage (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Cibola plan new construction; Active listing
• Construction: New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,535 (interior size)

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard plan kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility location not specified

🏗️ New construction. The $228,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $244,065.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,961 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,065
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 Tall Cedar Way	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,648 (+7%)	1mo	$236,990	$144	69
6314 Sandpiper Ln	0.66mi	4/2.5	1,535 (0%)	1mo	$207,999	$136	69
204 Redwood Rd	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,489 (-3%)	1mo	$237,990	$160	68
210 Arbor Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5	1,648 (+7%)	1mo	$236,990	$144	67
403 Shearwater Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	1mo	$253,674	$181	62
6414 Willet Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	1mo	$252,999	$180	60
416 Sandhill Crane Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	0mo	$221,999	$158	60
6413 Longspur Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-8%)	1mo	$215,000	$152	60
120 Redwood Rd	0.45mi	4/2.5	1,720 (+12%)	0mo	$255,990	$149	58
6412 Longspur Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	0mo	$222,999	$159	58
6508 Glade St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-9%)	1mo	$222,999	$159	56
6308 Sandpiper Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	1mo	$217,999	$160	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-52,193
• Equity at exit: $36,391

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-76,747
• Equity at exit: $21,102

Cash invested: $68,338 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,280
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$305 /mo · $3,661/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,135

Max offer price $228,584

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,016
• Closing costs: $7,322
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6550 August Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,695	$1.20	4d	1	0.06mi
6533 Middlebury Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1598	$1,900	$1.19	5d	1	0.07mi
6561 Alfalfa St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,599	$1.11	44d	1	0.07mi
152 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	13d	1	0.09mi
211 Herman Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,595	$1.23	44d	1	0.09mi
6739 Coulter Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,500	$1.30	44d	1	0.15mi
6445 Middlebury Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,649	$1.30	7d	1	0.15mi
206 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,475	$1.28	21d	1	0.15mi
119 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,999	$1.54	13d	1	0.16mi
214 Wheatgrass Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,699	$1.21	44d	1	0.17mi
241 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,850	$1.43	24d	1	0.17mi
230 Sunflower St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,560	$1.20	24d	1	0.17mi
252 Jethro Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	44d	1	0.22mi
402 Harvest St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,665	$1.16	13d	1	0.23mi
134 Harvest St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,825	$1.27	19d	1	0.25mi
6808 Sunbeam Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,534	$1.33	22d	1	0.25mi
151 Sesame Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1299	$1,634	$1.26	24d	1	0.26mi
6751 Highlands St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,639	$1.16	17d	1	0.27mi
101 County Road 1010 Unit 1010 Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,295	$1.23	44d	1	0.27mi
323 Clematis ST Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1648	$1,900	$1.15	44d	1	0.29mi
317 Clematis ST Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1510	$1,800	$1.19	44d	1	0.29mi
7007 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$1,995	$1.16	7d	1	0.33mi
7007 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$1,995	$1.16	10d	1	0.33mi
7018 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2131	$2,095	$0.98	24d	1	0.33mi
427 Bower DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	24d	1	0.35mi
213 Arbor DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	3d	1	0.40mi
213 Arbor DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$2,000	$1.16	44d	1	0.40mi
316 Arbor DR Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1648	$1,799	$1.09	24d	1	0.40mi
125 Arbor Dr Unit NA Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2054	$2,097	$1.02	24d	1	0.40mi
321 Tall Cedar Way Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1468	$1,725	$1.18	44d	1	0.40mi
120 Redwood Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1720	$2,300	$1.34	2d	1	0.42mi
639 Montclair Ave , TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,850	$1.08	7d	1	0.43mi
639 Montclair Ave , TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$2,100	$1.23	44d	1	0.43mi
6505 Glade St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	44d	1	0.43mi
422 Tall Cedar Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1648	$1,795	$1.09	44d	1	0.44mi
545 Holleman Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,750	$1.19	44d	1	0.45mi
7012 Cottonseed Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$1,878	$1.04	21d	1	0.45mi
538 Montclair Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,775	$1.41	10d	1	0.45mi
416 Finch CIR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,350	$1.07	44d	1	0.47mi
7016 Vining Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1648	$2,000	$1.21	44d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,999 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 332-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $228,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,671
• − Property taxes: −$3,661
• − Insurance: −$1,220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$7,100
• Taxable loss: −$5,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,319
• After-tax cash flow: $35/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B