7602 Maple St · Birch Tree, MO 65438

$39,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Other public records · 279 Days on market

Built 1961 0.34 ac lot $51/sqft · 21% below area Est $50k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

fixer upper on the very end of maple street, bones are there but needs work, has nice . 34 acre lot

Key facts

• 34 acre lot
• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1961

Tags

• 34 ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($836 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#658 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mountain View-Birch Tree R-III (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #158 of 324 in MO (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Shannon County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.81%
• DSCR: 2.99
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,333
• List price: $39,999
• Delta: -20.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $34,566
• Equity at exit: $21,305

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.33×
• Total profit: $82,102
• Equity at exit: $35,691

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65438

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $836 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $186/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $39,999

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $441	-5% $430	+0% $418	+5% $407	+10% $396
Rent	-10% $352	-5% $385	+0% $418	+5% $451	+10% $484
Rate	-1.0pp $438	-0.5pp $428	base $418	+0.5pp $408	+1.0pp $397

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 99-char remark

   Show marketing remark (99 chars)

   fixer upper on the very end of maple street, bones are there but needs work, has nice . 34 acre lot

2. 2025-07-31
   listed $39,999 Active 99-char remark

   Show marketing remark (99 chars)

   fixer upper on the very end of maple street, bones are there but needs work, has nice . 34 acre lot

3. 2022-02-22
   soldstatus
4. 2022-02-22
   soldstatus $350,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $186 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $388 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$202/yr (+$17/mo · 108.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$186
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$802
• − Management: −$802
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,633
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,112
• After-tax cash flow: $3,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain View-Birch Tree R-III
• NCES district ID: 2921540
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $28,871
• Composite: 33.31/100
• National rank: #5505
• State rank: #158 of 324 in MO

Livability — Birch Tree

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #22068

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Tree, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,616

Population outlook (Shannon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,703 people
• By 2030: 7,355 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 6,637 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 5,898 · -23.4%
• By 2075: 4,407 · -42.8%
• By 2100: 3,037 · -60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Shannon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.3) · D 15.6% · R 83.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -56.9pp toward R · 2008: -11.4pp · 2024: -68.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.3 2020: R+63.0 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+26.0 2008: R+11.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.43%
• Current HPI: 172.7103
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-88.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-07-31 Listed $39,999 SOMO
• 2022-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $186 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.