1430 Burke Rd · Las Cruces, NM 88007

$165,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1972 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing investment opportunity!!This home has the potential to be a major income producing property with the right vision. It will go fast at this price with this many possibilities!!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1972

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Approximately 1 acre lot (.76 to 1 acre)
• Exterior features: Covered and screened patio/porch; Property has a view; Horses allowed on the property

Interior

• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating includes fireplace(s); Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,288
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,664
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88007

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,420/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,332

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $258	+0% $212	+5% $165	+10% $118
Rent	-10% $85	-5% $148	+0% $212	+5% $275	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $295	-0.5pp $254	base $212	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1391 Espejo Ct Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.5	1959	$1,600	$0.82	14d	1	0.39mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 183-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $165,000 Active 183-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,420 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,420 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,420
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$160
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$38
• After-tax cash flow: $2,578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 131,421
• Population (ZIP): 25,750

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 34% Two or more races 19% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 30% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.30%
• Current HPI: 205.0841
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-01 Listed $165,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,420 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.