22071 Or-62 #37 · Shady Cove, OR 97539

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Land public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1973 $38/sqft · 15% below area Est $65k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pristine 3/2 with newer windows, slider and insulation. Sunny and light filled kitchen with dish washer and garbage disposal. Primary with ensuite. 2 bedrooms have been combined into one very large room used for quilting and crafts. Exterior irrigation on a timer. This Dbl-wd mobile home is on a large senior park lot right off Hwy 62 in Shady Cove. A 1 yr home warranty is offered with an accepted offer.

Key facts

• Ensuite
• Garbage disposal
• Large room

Tags

• NEWER WINDOWS
• SUNNY KITCHEN
• DISH WASHER
• GARBAGE DISPOSAL
• ENSUITE
• LARGE ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $640
• HOA & community: Senior community; No CCRs

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway, no garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Mobile Home (in-park); Double wide; One level
• Construction: Built in 1973; Vinyl skirt; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof; Double pane windows with vinyl frames; Manufacturer: Far West
• Exterior features: Landscaped; Level lot; Sprinkler timer(s); Shed(s); Other outbuilding(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (including primary bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating and cooling)
• Interior features: In-law floorplan; Shower/tub combo; Soaking tub; Accessible approach with ramp
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $965 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Cap rate 27.3% vs local median 2.2% in Shady Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#156 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Eagle Point SD 9 (suburban): math 26% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #134 of 183 in OR (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.18%
• DSCR: 4.35
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,005
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -15.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $52,541
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.11×
• Total profit: $124,887
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97539

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $364/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $965

Break-even live

Break-even rent $433

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $996	-5% $980	+0% $965	+5% $949	+10% $934
Rent	-10% $834	-5% $900	+0% $965	+5% $1,030	+10% $1,096
Rate	-1.0pp $993	-0.5pp $979	base $965	+0.5pp $951	+1.0pp $936

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
297 Sowell Dr Unit B Shady Cove, OR	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,795	$1.34	14d	1	0.52mi
25 Sowell Ct Shady Cove, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,395	$1.39	44d	1	0.52mi
293 Sowell Dr Shady Cove, OR	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,950	$1.14	14d	1	0.53mi
400 Indian Trail Ct Shady Cove, OR	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,350	$1.24	22d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-09
   listed $55,000 Active 406-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $364 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $534 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$169/yr (+$14/mo · 46.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$364
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $11,351
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,724
• After-tax cash flow: $8,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eagle Point SD 9
• NCES district ID: 4104500
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,834
• Composite: 33.13/100
• National rank: #10630
• State rank: #134 of 183 in OR

Livability — Shady Cove

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #9143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Cove, OR
• Population (ZIP): 3,349

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Lithuanian 8% Danish 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.55%
• Current HPI: 281.9845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-05-09 Listed $55,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+42.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $364 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.