4840 E Ironwood Cir · Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ 85650

$130,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1967 6,819 sqft lot Est $114k · 14% over $45/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

bathroom continues the wood-accent look with a full tub/shower and vanity storage. The second bedroom adds convenience with its own attached half bath, and the third bedroom offers extra flexibility for guests, an office, crafts, or a workout room, with additional cabinets, closets, and built-ins throughout to keep everything organized. Outside is where this property really stands out. The corner lot includes multiple fruit trees and a serious garden setup with large raised beds, irrigation, and a shaded structure, already dialed in for growing veggies, herbs, and flowers in the desert. Just off the house, a covered and screened-in patio creates an extended outdoor living room that stays us

Key facts

• Irrigation
• Attached half bath
• Full tub shower

Tags

• FULL TUB SHOWER
• ATTACHED HALF BATH
• MULTIPLE FRUIT TREES
• SERIOUS GARDEN SETUP
• LARGE RAISED BEDS
• IRRIGATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $574 annual tax (2025)
• HOA & community: Association with $45 monthly fee; Association fee listed as 'No Fees' included

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile housing; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl and metal siding with steel frame; Built-up, metal, and rolled/hot mop roofing
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Metal siding; Steel frame construction; Wood fencing; Irrigation in front yard; Irrigation in back yard; Built-up roof; Metal roof; Rolled/hot mop roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Has heating; Has cooling; Evaporative cooling; Mini-split cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.5% in Sierra Vista Southeast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#113 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huachuca Mountain Elementary School (math 38% / reading 52%, grade D-, #334 of 1,109 statewide, top 30%, 416 students, 34% FRL); Buena High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #202 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 1,836 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $130k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.04%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,760
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5037 E Goldfinch Cir	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	730 (+1%)	8mo	$115,000	$158	66
4916 E Ironwood Cir	0.09mi	2/1.5 (-1)	806 (+12%)	16mo	$32,000	$40	57
4867 E Bevers St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	786 (+9%)	15mo	$135,000	$172	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $9,902
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $48,448
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85650

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,665 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $574/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $130,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $574 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $858 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$284/yr (+$24/mo · 49.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$574
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $3,954
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$949
• After-tax cash flow: $4,889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista Southeast

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #15230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 14,154
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,876
• Household income: $91,654
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 137.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+420.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $130,000 ARMLS
• 1995-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1987-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $574 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.