827 E Lancaster Cir · Florence, AZ 85132

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 551 sqft · Condo public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1982 $227/sqft · 6% above area Est $119k · 5% over $146/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the Arizona active adult lifestyle in Casita Hermosa. A premiere 55+ community with unbeatable affordability and community amenities. Enjoy the heated pools, spas, pickleball, golf course, and large community center. Just a short drive to historic downtown where you find local art galleries, boutique shops & unique dining experiences. Ready to explore the beautiful Sonoran desert...hiking, and off road trails in Box Canyon, Poston Butte, Superstition Mountains and more. From potlucks, to card games, to fitness classes there's always something on the social calendar here. Soak up the Arizona sun with friends and neighbors where affordability meets lifestyle.

Key facts

• Heated pools
• Historic downtown
• Community amenities

Tags

• HEATED POOLS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• GOLF COURSE
• LARGE COMMUNITY CENTER
• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN
• LOCAL ART GALLERIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($702/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $125k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.01%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,893
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 5.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-18,538
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-19,297
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $331/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$146
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,115

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3722 N South Dakota Ave Florence, AZ	1.0	1.0	721	$1,100	$1.53	43d	1	0.48mi
125 E Gila Dr Florence, AZ	1.0	1.0	400	$900	$2.25	43d	1	0.84mi
216 E Ocotillo Dr Florence, AZ	1.0	1.0	385	$950	$2.47	24d	1	0.89mi
215 E Palo Verde Ln Florence, AZ	1.0	1.0	421	$1,300	$3.09	43d	1	0.92mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $146 · $1,752/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    historical $1,200
16. 2026-03-20
    listed $125,000 Active 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    Experience the Arizona active adult lifestyle in Casita Hermosa. A premiere 55+ community with unbeatable affordability and community amenities. Enjoy the heated pools, spas, pickleball, golf course, and large community center. Just a short drive to historic downtown where you find local art galleries, boutique shops & unique dining experiences. Ready to explore the beautiful Sonoran desert...hiking, and off road trails in Box Canyon, Poston Butte, Superstition Mountains and more. From potlucks, to card games, to fitness classes there's always something on the social calendar here. Soak up the Arizona sun with friends and neighbors where affordability meets lifestyle.

17. 2026-03-11
    historical
18. 2025-12-12
    listed $1,200
19. 2025-09-09
    listed $130,000 Active
20. 2015-04-30
    historical
21. 2014-11-11
    listed $46,900 Active
22. 2014-07-01
    historical
23. 2014-01-23
    listed $49,900 Active
24. 1995-05-05
    soldstatus $35,000
25. 1992-03-03
    soldstatus $28,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $331 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $825 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$494/yr (+$41/mo · 149.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥112°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$331
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − HOA: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,357
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$326
• After-tax cash flow: $1,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-95.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Rental Removed $1,200 ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed for Rent $1,200 ARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $130,000 ARMLS
• 2015-04-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-11-11 Listed $46,900 ARMLS
• 2014-07-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-01-23 Listed $49,900 ARMLS
• 1995-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1992-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $331 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.